0xcb67...cb63

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $143.31
Potential payout: $145.49
Potential profit: $2.18
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $2.06

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $51.91
Potential profit: $51.47
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.61

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $30.3
Potential payout: $31.44
Potential profit: $1.13
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $4.91
Potential payout: $16.91
Potential profit: $12.01
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $12.07
Potential payout: $12.25
Potential profit: $0.17
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.07

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $9.22
Potential payout: $9.34
Potential profit: $0.12
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.22

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $8.22
Potential payout: $8.41
Potential profit: $0.19
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $5.35
Potential payout: $5.49
Potential profit: $0.14
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $5.37
Potential payout: $5.45
Potential profit: $0.07
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.18

No position

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $3.42
Potential payout: $3.64
Potential profit: $0.21
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $3.11
Potential payout: $3.4
Potential profit: $0.29
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $2.99
Potential payout: $3.26
Potential profit: $0.28
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $2.14
Potential payout: $2.17
Potential profit: $0.03
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.14

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $2.04
Potential profit: $0.04
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $1.65
Potential payout: $1.75
Potential profit: $0.1
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $1.18
Potential profit: $0.03
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $1.11
Potential payout: $1.16
Potential profit: $0.05
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $1.11
Potential payout: $1.15
Potential profit: $0.04
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $1.15
Potential profit: $0.21
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $1.05
Potential profit: $0.05
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $1.05
Potential profit: $0.03
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $57.21

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.1

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.49

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27.91

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $22.69

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.74

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.88

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.63

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.02

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.91

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 3?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.89

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.77

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.64

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1?