Bacp

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $8.35
Potential payout: $303.57
Potential profit: $295.22
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.92
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $164.75
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $124.81
Potential profit: $124.81
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $110.06
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 16.6%
Current value: $16.52
Potential payout: $99.49
Potential profit: $82.97
Multiplier: 6.02x
User PnL: $6.52

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $5.05
Potential payout: $94.34
Potential profit: $89.29
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 40.2%
Current value: $23.9
Potential payout: $59.52
Potential profit: $35.63
Multiplier: 2.49x
User PnL: $3.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $29.7
Potential payout: $48.29
Potential profit: $18.59
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $9.9

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.4%
Current value: $8.27
Potential payout: $45.06
Potential profit: $36.79
Multiplier: 5.45x
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $3.78
Potential payout: $44.44
Potential profit: $40.67
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 25.9%
Current value: $9.38
Potential payout: $36.3
Potential profit: $26.92
Multiplier: 3.87x
User PnL: $4.38

Yes position

Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.17
Potential profit: $29.17
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 33.1%
Current value: $9.26
Potential payout: $28.01
Potential profit: $18.75
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$0.74

Egypt position

Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $3.87
Potential payout: $26.67
Potential profit: $22.8
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $22.22
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $8.67
Potential payout: $15.63
Potential profit: $6.95
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$1.33

Yes position

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.63
Potential profit: $15.63
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.76
Potential profit: $11.76
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $11.11
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.52
Potential profit: $9.52
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.41
Potential profit: $7.41
User PnL: -$2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $29.98

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.94

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.35

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.88

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.13

Yes position

Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.68

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Ends Mar 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.3

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.68

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.57

Yes position

Will the US strike 2 countries in February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.54

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.53

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.42

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.39

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.56

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.24

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET

Ends Mar 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.2

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.98

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET