No position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- User PnL
- -$295
Polymarket Trader
SmallPuddles
0xcbb3e3521b201345ac6f2fdc741c22c692eed024
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $179.22
- Realized PnL
- $143.06
- Win rate
- 95.5%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $502.14
- Potential profit
- $502.14
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $452.01
- Potential profit
- $452.01
- User PnL
- -$80
Yes position
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $10.82
- Potential payout
- $212.5
- Potential profit
- $201.68
- Multiplier
- 19.65x
- User PnL
- -$14.18
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $10
- Potential payout
- $181.82
- Potential profit
- $171.82
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $166.74
- Potential profit
- $166.74
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $125
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.1%
- Current value
- $22.66
- Potential payout
- $112.99
- Potential profit
- $90.34
- Multiplier
- 4.99x
- User PnL
- $2.66
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $13.94
- Potential payout
- $89.94
- Potential profit
- $76
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$16.06
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $87.14
- Potential profit
- $87.14
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $78.13
- Potential profit
- $78.13
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $71.43
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65.22
- Potential profit
- $65.22
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $6.56
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $55.94
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$13.44
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $3.82
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $55
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$6.18
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $7.94
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $50.88
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$22.06
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $56.6
- Potential payout
- $56.6
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $26.6
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56.46
- Potential profit
- $56.46
- User PnL
- -$39.52
Leadership Change position
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $54.55
- Potential profit
- $54.55
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $48.39
- Potential profit
- $48.39
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $46.88
- Potential payout
- $46.88
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $16.88
No position
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 21?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.88
- Potential profit
- $46.88
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $44.62
- Potential profit
- $44.62
- User PnL
- -$11.6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.19
No position
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next video?
Ends Mar 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.17
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.12
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.24
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.49
No position
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.89
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.21
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.5
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.03
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.03
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.91
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.67
No position
ChatGPT Outage by March 27?
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.55
No position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.32
No position
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.09
Yes position
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.41
No position
Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94
No position
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.7
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$11.32
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?No 91% 46.2 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes 99.7% 30.3 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?No 19.4% 335.36 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?No 19% 157.89 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?No 46% 65.22 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?No 72% 41.67 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No 83% 36.14 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 51% 58.82 shares
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 17.7% 112.99 shares
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?Yes 98.7% 45.8 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No 99.9% 27.02 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Yes 99.9% 31.94 shares