0xcbff...f748

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $43.81
Potential payout: $811.29
Potential profit: $767.48
Multiplier: 18.52x
User PnL: -$8.19

Yes position

US x China Military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $28.31
Potential payout: $629.17
Potential profit: $600.86
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$14.69

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.1%
Current value: $54.39
Potential payout: $601.01
Potential profit: $546.62
Multiplier: 11.05x
User PnL: $12.31

No position

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.67
Potential payout: $277.56
Potential profit: $275.89
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$18.33

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $16.66
Potential payout: $256.29
Potential profit: $239.63
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$9.34

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $2.46
Potential payout: $214.29
Potential profit: $211.82
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $16.09
Potential payout: $153.94
Potential profit: $137.86
Multiplier: 9.57x
User PnL: $8.59

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $25.3
Potential payout: $77.84
Potential profit: $52.54
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$8.6

Yes position

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $14.68
Potential payout: $50.6
Potential profit: $35.93
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: -$1.32

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.15
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$1.15

Yes position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $5.22
Potential payout: $36.03
Potential profit: $30.8
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $5.04
Potential payout: $28.79
Potential profit: $23.75
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

New pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $1.52
Potential payout: $27.55
Potential profit: $26.03
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 14.8%
Current value: $3.8
Potential payout: $25.76
Potential profit: $21.96
Multiplier: 6.78x
User PnL: -$1.23

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $4.46
Potential payout: $18.21
Potential profit: $13.75
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$1.79

No position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $5.21
Potential payout: $15.11
Potential profit: $9.9
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $0.73

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $13.07
Potential profit: $11.17
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $1.39
Potential payout: $8.41
Potential profit: $7.02
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.87

Yes position

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $0.54
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $6.61
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $4.83
Potential profit: $4.55
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $1.01
Potential profit: $0.98
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $1.01
Potential profit: $0.97
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $0.41
Potential payout: $1.01
Potential profit: $0.6
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.57

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.41

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.48

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.8

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $22.16

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.19

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.29

Yes position

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.45

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.08

Yes position

Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.23

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.48

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.1

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.79

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.53

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.52

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.4

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.9

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.87

Yes position

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.77

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.71

Yes position

Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.37

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.79

Yes position

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?