holygagi

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $391.8
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $8.2
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $7

No position

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $342.71
Potential payout: $370.5
Potential profit: $27.79
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $76.48

No position

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $265.28
Potential payout: $277.78
Potential profit: $12.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $15.28

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $159.68
Potential payout: $160.64
Potential profit: $0.96
User PnL: $9.68

No position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $65.92
Potential payout: $151.55
Potential profit: $85.62
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $26.33

Yes position

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $100
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $7

No position

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $61.46
Potential payout: $87.8
Potential profit: $26.34
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $18.86

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.63
Potential profit: $81.63
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $64.98
Potential payout: $71.01
Potential profit: $6.04
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $4.98

No position

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $60
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $2.04

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $52.61
Potential payout: $52.98
Potential profit: $0.37
User PnL: $27.18

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $50
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $18

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $50
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $40

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $49.36
Potential payout: $49.63
Potential profit: $0.27
User PnL: $10.45

No position

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $45.99
Potential payout: $46.15
Potential profit: $0.16
User PnL: $15.99

No position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $42.07
Potential payout: $45.98
Potential profit: $3.91
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.07

Yes position

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $24.86
Potential profit: $24.7
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$7.19

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $19.98
Potential payout: $21.84
Potential profit: $1.86
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $11.57
Potential payout: $14.93
Potential profit: $3.36
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $1.57

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.07
Potential payout: $2.07
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.6

No position

ECB rate cut in 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $1.53
Potential payout: $1.79
Potential profit: $0.26
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.53

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.48

Yes position

Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.4

No position

US strike on Mexico by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.28

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.19

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.92

No position

Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.82

No position

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 96.7%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $14.37

No position

Major US official out by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.4

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.04

Yes position

Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.32

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.7%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $6.21

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.73

Yes position

Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$9.71

No position

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$11.88

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$14.76

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$40

No position

Will Tim Walz activate the National Guard in MN by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$54.64

No position

Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?