linyuzhi

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $186
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $14
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $149
Potential profit: $149
User PnL: -$139.06

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $122.18
Potential payout: $135
Potential profit: $12.83
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $11.93

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $119.81
Potential payout: $120.11
Potential profit: $0.3
User PnL: $2.06

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $99.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.25
User PnL: $4.55

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $93.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $6.25
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.15

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$67.99

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $82
Potential profit: $82
User PnL: -$74.1

Yes position

Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $49.83
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $3.83

Yes position

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $9.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $40.75
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$24.75

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $49.83
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $0.73

Yes position

Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $44
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $6
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $27.93
Potential payout: $37.99
Potential profit: $10.07
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $4.37

Yes position

Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 16.2%
Current value: $5.65
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $29.35
Multiplier: 6.19x
User PnL: -$17.97

No position

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $29.91
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $0.09
User PnL: $1.11

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $24.88
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $5.38

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $8.5
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $1.5
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.9

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 94.7%
Current value: $9.47
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.54
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.02

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 78.6%
Current value: $7.86
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.14
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.61

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $9.9
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.11
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $3.44

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $8.05
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $1.95
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $6.83
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $0.17
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.53

Yes position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $3.27
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $2.73
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $0.51

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $298.95

No position

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.5

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $53.85

Yes position

Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.7

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.71

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.06

No position

Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?

Implied probability: 71%
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $27.33

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $23.2

Yes position

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.5

No position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.3

Yes position

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.2

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.25

No position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.92

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.45

No position

Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.63

Yes position

Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.25

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.15

No position

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.9

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.2

No position

Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

No position

Netanyahu out by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?