Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $52.27K
- Potential payout
- $550.25K
- Potential profit
- $497.98K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$41.03K
Polymarket Trader
ShayaEredyon
0xcd09c7f5132a160b41578a79a9e3453da7aeda63
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $57.6K
- Realized PnL
- $31.4K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $901.91
- Potential payout
- $9.49K
- Potential profit
- $8.59K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$868.41
Yes position
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $1.63K
- Potential payout
- $6.38K
- Potential profit
- $4.75K
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$16.4
Yes position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 50%
- Current value
- $2.68K
- Potential payout
- $5.37K
- Potential profit
- $2.68K
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- -$745.68
Yes position
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.4%
- Current value
- $68.65
- Potential payout
- $734.23
- Potential profit
- $665.58
- Multiplier
- 10.70x
- User PnL
- $22.79
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $93.14
- Potential profit
- $93.14
- User PnL
- -$46.57
No position
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $43.88
- Potential payout
- $44.82
- Potential profit
- $0.94
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $10.93
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.42K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.39K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $554.18
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $371.32
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $337.34
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $315
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195
No position
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $194.42
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184
Yes position
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?
Ends Nov 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167
No position
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $161.4
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $153.99
No position
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.26
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.35
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.8
No position
Will MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.57
No position
US recession in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.82
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.8
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $65.3
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.4
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.52
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.89
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes 7% 461.56 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 18% 370 shares
- Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?Yes 41% 50 shares
- H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?Yes 10% 500 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 18% 600 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes 14% 835.55 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 18% 60 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 18% 300 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 18% 200 shares
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes 99.4% 10 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 18% 2,000 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Yes 9% 4,769.58 shares