Yes position
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $199.85
- Potential payout
- $1.74K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $2.79
Polymarket Trader
jiehfof
0xcd3e9dd185f155122d5ba1d1cdce322238e6ae81
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $992.71
- Realized PnL
- $13.45
- Win rate
- 86.4%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
Ends Oct 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $208.18
- Potential payout
- $412.23
- Potential profit
- $204.06
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$31.82
No position
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $237.12
- Potential payout
- $362.01
- Potential profit
- $124.89
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$12.88
Yes position
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $75.63
- Potential payout
- $270.09
- Potential profit
- $194.47
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$24.37
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $144.38
- Potential payout
- $164.06
- Potential profit
- $19.69
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $19.38
No position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $74.53
- Potential payout
- $100.04
- Potential profit
- $25.51
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$2.16
Yes position
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $22.95
- Potential payout
- $58.11
- Potential profit
- $35.16
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $12.67
- Potential payout
- $13.14
- Potential profit
- $0.47
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.67
No position
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $4.17
- Potential payout
- $8.77
- Potential profit
- $4.61
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.16
- Potential profit
- $7.16
- User PnL
- -$4.94
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $6.15
- Potential payout
- $6.58
- Potential profit
- $0.43
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.15
No position
Human moon landing in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $6.06
- Potential payout
- $6.23
- Potential profit
- $0.18
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.55
- Potential profit
- $4.55
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.85
- Potential profit
- $3.85
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $1.12
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.25
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29
Yes position
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15
Yes position
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.88
No position
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.69
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.58
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
Yes position
Left-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 24%
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 10% 200 shares
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?No 74% 36.99 shares
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Yes 39.2% 58.09 shares
- Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?Yes 53% 37.74 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No 99.6% 10.31 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No 99.6% 10.3 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.3% 5.8 shares
- Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?Yes 49% 40.82 shares
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Yes 33% 60.61 shares
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?No 94% 6.09 shares
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?No 97.5% 5.1 shares
- Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 57% 8.77 shares