Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.3K
- Potential profit
- $19.3K
- User PnL
- -$1.9K
Polymarket Trader
2117
0xcd95ebd0d0d099fa442b9730991f2b8be5d28c17
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $24.5
- Realized PnL
- $93.05K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.52K
- Potential profit
- $17.52K
- User PnL
- -$3.47K
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.32K
- Potential profit
- $14.32K
- User PnL
- -$763.21
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.7K
- Potential profit
- $13.7K
- User PnL
- -$1.07K
Yes position
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 20?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.78K
- Potential profit
- $12.78K
- User PnL
- -$367.95
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12K
- Potential profit
- $12K
- User PnL
- -$534.98
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.9K
- Potential profit
- $11.9K
- User PnL
- -$9.63K
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.65K
- Potential profit
- $11.65K
- User PnL
- -$458.77
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11K
- Potential profit
- $11K
- User PnL
- -$528.08
No position
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.76K
- Potential profit
- $9.76K
- User PnL
- -$4.03K
Yes position
Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.64K
- Potential profit
- $8.64K
- User PnL
- -$2.53K
Yes position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.38K
- Potential profit
- $8.38K
- User PnL
- -$197.02
Yes position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.4K
- Potential profit
- $7.4K
- User PnL
- -$1.19K
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.27K
- Potential profit
- $7.27K
- User PnL
- -$1.7K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $24.5
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $6.98K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$769.18
Yes position
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.68K
- Potential profit
- $6.68K
- User PnL
- -$131.51
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.65K
- Potential profit
- $6.65K
- User PnL
- -$218.68
Yes position
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 19?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.63K
- Potential profit
- $6.63K
- User PnL
- -$188.51
Yes position
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.56K
- Potential profit
- $6.56K
- User PnL
- -$202.57
Yes position
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.34K
- Potential profit
- $6.34K
- User PnL
- -$406.96
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.27K
- Potential profit
- $6.27K
- User PnL
- -$70.34
Yes position
US forces in Venezuela by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.02K
- Potential profit
- $6.02K
- User PnL
- -$265.51
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.48K
- Potential profit
- $5.48K
- User PnL
- -$218.97
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.15K
- Potential profit
- $5.15K
- User PnL
- -$431.27
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.15K
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.32K
Yes position
US military action against Iran by Saturday?
Ends Jun 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.62K
No position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.72K
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.16K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.07K
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5K
Yes position
US military action against Iran by Sunday?
Ends Jun 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.63K
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.2K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.82K
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.61K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57K
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.48K
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.09K
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.52K
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48K
Yes position
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39K
Yes position
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.35K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.24K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?Yes 56.6% 100 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yes 1.7% 9,028.12 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 17% 3,039.21 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 4.9% 400 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yes 1.6% 4,012.5 shares
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?No 81% 100 shares
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 92.8% 300 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 16% 2,363.82 shares
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?No 80% 23.5 shares
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 92.7% 300 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 19% 1,500 shares
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?No 74% 56.65 shares