Yes position
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $425
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.58K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$75
Polymarket Trader
Bravo414
0xcd9661393d5a92d3b2ff3c3e1d9c26df11759ee4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.74K
- Realized PnL
- $2.03K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.99K
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- $4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.01K
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $94.02
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $263.15
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $9.7
- Potential payout
- $924.24
- Potential profit
- $914.54
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$10.29
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $407.51
- Potential payout
- $747.73
- Potential profit
- $340.22
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $7.51
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $32.27
- Potential payout
- $725.17
- Potential profit
- $692.9
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- $2.27
Yes position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $109.3
- Potential payout
- $683.1
- Potential profit
- $573.8
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$216.17
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $70.54
- Potential payout
- $522.55
- Potential profit
- $452
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$29.46
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $153.4
- Potential payout
- $472
- Potential profit
- $318.6
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- -$46.6
Yes position
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $21.01
- Potential payout
- $428.72
- Potential profit
- $407.71
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- -$33.99
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $249.9
- Potential payout
- $310.43
- Potential profit
- $60.53
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $99.9
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $5.11
- Potential payout
- $309.52
- Potential profit
- $304.42
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$19.89
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Current value
- $258.74
- Potential payout
- $270.23
- Potential profit
- $11.48
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $58.74
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $211.42
- Potential payout
- $259.44
- Potential profit
- $48.02
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $22.42
No position
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $211.92
- Potential payout
- $250.8
- Potential profit
- $38.87
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $31.92
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $168.56
- Potential payout
- $194.87
- Potential profit
- $26.31
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $18.56
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $112.67
- Potential payout
- $192.59
- Potential profit
- $79.93
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $7.67
Yes position
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $13.03
- Potential payout
- $186.12
- Potential profit
- $173.09
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$11.97
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $20.69
- Potential payout
- $179.89
- Potential profit
- $159.21
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$9.31
Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $12.23
- Potential payout
- $163.1
- Potential profit
- $150.87
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$12.77
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $26.77
- Potential payout
- $144.72
- Potential profit
- $117.95
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$73.23
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $126.06
- Potential payout
- $140.85
- Potential profit
- $14.79
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $26.06
Yes position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $59.62
- Potential payout
- $128.21
- Potential profit
- $68.59
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $9.62
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $8.19
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $116.81
- Multiplier
- 15.27x
- User PnL
- -$1.81
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $572.41
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179.17
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162.67
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.91
Yes position
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $89.27
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $83.8
Yes position
Will Trump sue the BBC?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.28
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $80.25
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.08
Yes position
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.5
Yes position
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.98
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.92
No position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.85
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.79
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.14
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.37
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.11
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.19
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.87
No position
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.51
No position
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during events with Rutte?
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
No position
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.69
No position
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.21
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $27.86
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 0.5% 2,000 shares
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 1.2% 833.33 shares
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes 14% 71.43 shares
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 3% 676.46 shares
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes 14% 71.43 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 62.5% 48 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 96.2% 355.3 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 81% 71.6 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 54% 55.56 shares
- ECB rate cut in 2026?Yes 19% 26.32 shares
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?Yes 6.9% 72.05 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No 73% 68.49 shares