Polymarket Trader

cynical-reason

@cynical_reason

0xce66940dfe6dc18bc151d66d52a66eb2121bcc64

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $0
Realized PnL: $349.26K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30K
Potential profit: $30K
User PnL: -$180

Yes position

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.59K
Potential profit: $20.59K
User PnL: -$2.04K

Yes position

Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Shedeur Sanders be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Katy Perry be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Canelo Alvarez be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Diddy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Mikey Madison be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Beyoncé be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Sydney Sweeney be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Jannik Sinner be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Sam Altman be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Yes position

Will Kanye West / Ye be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.1K
Potential profit: $14.1K
User PnL: -$156.34

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.69K

No position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.77K

Yes position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.8K

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.46K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.02K

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.78K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.02K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.88K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.28K

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.91K

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.44K

Yes position

Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.84K

No position

Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.73K

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.78K

No position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.44K

Yes position

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.99K

Yes position

Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.23K

Yes position

Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.49K

Yes position

Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.99K

Yes position

Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.97K

No position

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.65K

No position

Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.52K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.43K

No position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.14K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Yes 26% 263.59 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Yes 51% 67 shares
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?

Yes 84% 6 shares
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Yes 75% 261.14 shares
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?

No 99.9% 2,621.49 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Yes 6% 42,258.03 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Yes 1.1% 24,359.31 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Yes 11% 11,699.63 shares
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

No 97.5% 20,000 shares
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

No 97.5% 30,000 shares
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

No 97.5% 50,000 shares
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

Yes 6.9% 522 shares