Polymarket Trader

burlador

@c0nstab1e

0xceeaa01d2725535335eb88601f02312672d4ec81

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $900.46
Realized PnL: $778.26
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $384.36
Potential profit: $384.36
User PnL: -$333.3

Yes position

Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $82.16
Potential payout: $373.46
Potential profit: $291.3
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: $23.53

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $49.86
Potential payout: $270.27
Potential profit: $220.41
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $186.87
Potential payout: $254.24
Potential profit: $67.37
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$13.13

Team Yandex position

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $171.09
Potential profit: $171.09
User PnL: -$110

Yes position

Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $70.45
Potential payout: $151.52
Potential profit: $81.06
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$29.55

Yes position

Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $105
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $37.86
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $129.87
Potential profit: $129.87
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $101.86
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $23.14
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $1.86

GamerLegion position

Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $123.1
Potential profit: $123.1
User PnL: -$99.42

Team Yandex position

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $118.82
Potential profit: $118.82
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $100.57
Potential payout: $113.64
Potential profit: $13.07
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.57

Yes position

Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $44.01
Potential payout: $94.64
Potential profit: $50.63
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$0.99

Team Spirit position

Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $88.78
Potential profit: $88.78
User PnL: -$19.53

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $60.32
Potential payout: $79.37
Potential profit: $19.05
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $10.32

Yes position

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-28?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $50.99
Potential payout: $65.79
Potential profit: $14.8
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $0.99

Nigma Galaxy position

Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $64.97
Potential profit: $64.97
User PnL: -$9.74

Vici Gaming position

Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $63.54
Potential profit: $63.54
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $19.06
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $43.44
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$0.94

Aurora position

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.35
Potential profit: $54.35
User PnL: -$25

FURIA position

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$30

BetBoom Team position

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.67
Potential profit: $46.67
User PnL: -$35

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $29.31
Potential payout: $46.15
Potential profit: $16.85
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$0.69

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Tundra Esports position

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.37

Tundra Esports position

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 3 Winner

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.71

Yes position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.14

Xtreme Gaming position

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.24

Yes position

Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.31

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.33

Spirit position

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.97

Team Liquid position

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.08

Team Yandex position

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.31

Vici Gaming position

Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - DreamLeague China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.46

Team Liquid position

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.46

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.13

Over position

Games Total: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.55

No position

Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.22

PARIVISION position

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.48

Team Spirit position

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.45

GamerLegion position

Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.45

Yes position

Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.34

No position

Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.25

FUT Esports position

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.64

Aurora position

Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.22

Team Falcons position

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.09

Tundra Esports position

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 4 Winner

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.05

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)

Spirit 13% 21.73 shares
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)

Spirit 46% 21.74 shares
Games Total: O/U 2.5

Over 50% 20 shares
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

LGD Gaming 62% 48.39 shares
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 64% 39.06 shares
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 32% 62.5 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 64% 39.06 shares
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?

Yes 47% 42.55 shares
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?

Yes 53% 28.3 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.5% 270.27 shares
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Vitality 71% 42.25 shares
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Spirit 74% 40.54 shares