Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- User PnL
- -$60
Polymarket Trader
0xCf1dB405a65802d65411c85E0EA5c7d585398471-1759275200057
0xcf1db405a65802d65411c85e0ea5c7d585398471
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $523.94
- Realized PnL
- $692.06
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $868.43
- Potential profit
- $868.43
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $186.57
- Potential payout
- $793.91
- Potential profit
- $607.34
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$72.88
Yes position
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $746.2
- Potential profit
- $746.2
- User PnL
- -$16.42
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $688.86
- Potential profit
- $688.86
- User PnL
- -$85.78
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $45.27
- Potential payout
- $646.73
- Potential profit
- $601.46
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$170.73
No position
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.4%
- Current value
- $292.11
- Potential payout
- $579.11
- Potential profit
- $287.01
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $531.2
- Potential profit
- $531.2
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $506.47
- Potential profit
- $506.47
- User PnL
- -$51.94
Yes position
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$17.5
No position
US government shutdown by October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $394.74
- Potential profit
- $394.74
- User PnL
- -$7.5
No position
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $381.82
- Potential profit
- $381.82
- User PnL
- -$80
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India"?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $363.88
- Potential profit
- $363.88
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Panick in the White House
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $280
- Potential profit
- $280
- User PnL
- -$33.6
Y
Yes position
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $263.28
- Potential profit
- $263.28
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will Ford Motor (F) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$51
Yes position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Taylor Swift rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.6
- Potential profit
- $58.6
- User PnL
- -$23.01
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?
Ends Nov 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.2
- Potential profit
- $22.2
- User PnL
- -$3.33
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Oct 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $163.8
Yes position
OpenAI browser by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.24
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.99
Yes position
Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.9
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.83
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.39
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.24
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?
Ends Nov 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.44
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.04
Yes position
Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro lose the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.39
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.46
Yes position
Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 14m?
Ends Oct 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.57
Yes position
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Optimus" during earnings call?
Ends Oct 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.8
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.48
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.63
No position
OpenAI browser by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$4.1
Yes position
Will Base launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14.65
Yes position
US strikes Nigeria by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$16.1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?
Ends Nov 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$18.09
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$43.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?No 51.3% 579.11 shares
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No 76% 109.26 shares
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Yes 44.4% 78.77 shares
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?Yes 40.5% 246.73 shares
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No 94% 223.13 shares
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes 86% 162.03 shares
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes 52.8% 162.04 shares
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 2.2% 3,895.47 shares
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Yes 33.8% 415.14 shares
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?Yes 5.6% 357.14 shares
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?Yes 5.7% 699.17 shares
- US strikes Nigeria by December 31?Yes 7% 484.32 shares