No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $50.85
- Potential payout
- $53.22
- Potential profit
- $2.37
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Polymarket Trader
Operate
0xcf4703ceb765e09dc802dd6d8bfbaa926de02c4b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $581.08
- Realized PnL
- $29.64
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $49.08
- Potential payout
- $51.74
- Potential profit
- $2.66
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.86
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $49.86
- Potential payout
- $51.06
- Potential profit
- $1.2
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
No position
Will HSBC fail by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $49.05
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $0.95
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 93.4%
- Current value
- $46.7
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $3.3
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Current value
- $46.07
- Potential payout
- $48.11
- Potential profit
- $2.04
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $43.12
- Potential payout
- $44.84
- Potential profit
- $1.73
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.7%
- Current value
- $39.12
- Potential payout
- $44.63
- Potential profit
- $5.51
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$3.04
No position
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $39.54
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $0.46
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $26.19
- Potential payout
- $33.36
- Potential profit
- $7.17
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $0.58
No position
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $18.79
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $1.21
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Will Santander fail by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $19.65
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.35
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $19.07
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.93
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $17
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $3
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $14.6
- Potential payout
- $15.02
- Potential profit
- $0.41
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $12.16
- Potential payout
- $13.01
- Potential profit
- $0.85
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $9.41
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.59
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $6.84
- Potential payout
- $6.88
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $5.37
- Potential payout
- $5.93
- Potential profit
- $0.56
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $4.88
- Potential payout
- $5.14
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $4.63
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $4.28
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.72
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $3.01
- Potential payout
- $3.1
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $1.84
- Potential payout
- $1.9
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.32
No position
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.04
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.01
No position
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $2.62
No position
US x China Military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.28
No position
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.73
No position
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 86%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.2
No position
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.98
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.81
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.74
No position
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.66
No position
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 92.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.48
No position
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.47
No position
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.43
No position
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 96%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.33
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Yes 94.8% 43 shares
- Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Yes 95% 11 shares
- Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Yes 95.1% 14.27 shares
- Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Yes 95.3% 60.4 shares
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No 95% 5 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.6% 0.15 shares
- NATO dissolves before 2027?No 95.8% 3.04 shares
- Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?No 95.8% 2.31 shares
- Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027?No 90% 4.34 shares
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No 94.3% 52.31 shares
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No 92.8% 1.22 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Yes 99.7% 770 shares