0xcF4e8C0Bd8941CaEA7a5E90eE37657aAFD88C5C0-1762071908190

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $624.06
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.06

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.63
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $249.38
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?

Ends Nov 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $222.56
Potential profit: $222.45
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.89

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $215.48
Potential profit: $214.29
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$1.81

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 21.9%
Current value: $12.74
Potential payout: $58.31
Potential profit: $45.57
Multiplier: 4.58x
User PnL: $10.74

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $3.26
Potential payout: $43.41
Potential profit: $40.15
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$2.74

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.06
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.67
Potential profit: $30.67
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $4.86
Potential payout: $21.59
Potential profit: $16.73
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $2.86

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $3.86
Potential payout: $21.51
Potential profit: $17.65
Multiplier: 5.57x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $15.62
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: $0.04

No position

World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.51
Potential profit: $13.51
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $10.64
Potential profit: $9.86
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.15
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $6.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 13.6%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $5.97
Potential profit: $5.16
Multiplier: 7.34x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $0.7
Potential payout: $4.55
Potential profit: $3.84
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 23.4%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $4.35
Potential profit: $3.33
Multiplier: 4.28x
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $4.35
Potential profit: $3.63
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 19.2%
Current value: $0.71
Potential payout: $3.72
Potential profit: $3
Multiplier: 5.21x
User PnL: -$0.29

No position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.76
Potential payout: $1.76
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 57.6%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.74
Potential profit: $0.74
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 60.3%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $1.63
Potential profit: $0.65
Multiplier: 1.66x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 59.4%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $1.59
Potential profit: $0.65
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.7

Yes position

Will Samsunspor win on 2026-04-27?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.57

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.51

Timberwolves position

Timberwolves vs. Rockets

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.94

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.56

Illinois Fighting Illini position

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Purdue Boilermakers

Ends Jan 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.91

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET