Polymarket Trader

ballena

0xcfc51c0a1a5a78845127d9d9dcb1236f700dc7cf

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $10.09M
Realized PnL: -$5.59K
Win rate: 0%
Open positions: 7
Closed positions: 6
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 84.3%
Current value: $4.23M
Potential payout: $5.02M
Potential profit: $790.55K
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $1.72M

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.8%
Current value: $790.55K
Potential payout: $5.02M
Potential profit: $4.23M
Multiplier: 6.35x
User PnL: -$1.72M

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.6%
Current value: $978.57K
Potential payout: $5.01M
Potential profit: $4.03M
Multiplier: 5.12x
User PnL: -$1.52M

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $4.03M
Potential payout: $5.01M
Potential profit: $978.57K
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $1.52M

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $29.47K
Potential payout: $150K
Potential profit: $120.52K
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: $8.08K

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.7%
Current value: $18.97K
Potential payout: $150K
Potential profit: $131.02K
Multiplier: 7.91x
User PnL: $1.43K

No position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 92.9%
Current value: $15.77K
Potential payout: $16.99K
Potential profit: $1.21K
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$117.9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 76.8%
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 62.4%
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.3%
Multiplier: 4.30x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.7%
Multiplier: 2.66x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.01K

No position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.58K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 11% 50,000 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 16.2% 50,000 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 11% 50,000 shares
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

No 0.9% 13,043.49 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 16% 1,011.99 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 16% 30,000 shares
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Yes 11% 1,120.89 shares
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Yes 22% 40.25 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.6% 17,459.35 shares
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

No 92.7% 225.62 shares
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

No 93.3% 2,349.18 shares