pika2zero

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $190.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.81K
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: $27.5

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.6%
Current value: $556.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.44K
Multiplier: 5.39x
User PnL: $37.5

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.7%
Current value: $472.99
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.53K
Multiplier: 4.23x
User PnL: $18.55

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $48.75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.45K
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: $14.25

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $1.14K
Potential payout: $1.31K
Potential profit: $163.51
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $76.51

Yes position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $97.5
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.2K
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $136.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $863.5
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$38.5

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $521.87
Potential payout: $603.31
Potential profit: $81.45
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $6.25

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $543
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $57
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $39.46

Yes position

Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $158.77
Potential payout: $401.95
Potential profit: $243.18
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$92.44

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $376.6
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $23.4
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $9.2

No position

Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 56.2%
Current value: $224.8
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $175.2
Multiplier: 1.78x
User PnL: -$4.4

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $384.02
Potential payout: $386.53
Potential profit: $2.51
User PnL: $39.74

No position

Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $258.51
Potential payout: $307.75
Potential profit: $49.24
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $38.39

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $282.37
Potential payout: $302
Potential profit: $19.63
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $16.33

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.1%
Current value: $48.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $251.85
Multiplier: 6.23x
User PnL: -$1.65

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $274.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $25.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $25.5

No position

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $215
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $35
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$3.79

Yes position

Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 18.6%
Current value: $45.34
Potential payout: $243.77
Potential profit: $198.43
Multiplier: 5.38x
User PnL: -$32.98

No position

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $181.5
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $38.5
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $11.75

No position

Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $209.65
Potential payout: $219.99
Potential profit: $10.34
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $29.26

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $190.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $9.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $12.9

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $93
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $107
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $31.1
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $168.89
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: $9.73

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $583.68

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330.84

Yes position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $286.96

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $286.16

Yes position

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.14

Yes position

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $234.83

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $195.84

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.91

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166.61

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.72

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.55

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.38

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.79

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.91

Yes position

US military action against Iran by Monday?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $141.35

Yes position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.42

No position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.55

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.93

No position

Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $77.35

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.94

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.33

No position

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $75.05

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?