Polymarket Trader

Tsubasa

0xcfde61eb95f05b384c96a021028c90c1d26f4006

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.22K
Realized PnL: $5.16K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.3%
Current value: $302.95
Potential payout: $1.66K
Potential profit: $1.36K
Multiplier: 5.48x
User PnL: $129.14

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $21.54
Potential payout: $1.39K
Potential profit: $1.37K
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 21.7%
Current value: $134.23
Potential payout: $620
Potential profit: $485.77
Multiplier: 4.62x
User PnL: $44.61

No position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 40.6%
Current value: $215.39
Potential payout: $530.01
Potential profit: $314.61
Multiplier: 2.46x
User PnL: $81.24

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $20.92
Potential payout: $470
Potential profit: $449.09
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: $4.34

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $29.9
Potential payout: $460
Potential profit: $430.1
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$57.4

Yes position

Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $2.6
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $397.39
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $399.99
User PnL: -$3.9

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.35
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $298.65
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $11.28
Potential payout: $260
Potential profit: $248.72
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$4.14

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 11.4%
Current value: $19.3
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $150.7
Multiplier: 8.81x
User PnL: $0.56

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $131.75
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $38.25
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $14.45

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $18.4
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $141.6
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $3.92
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $156.08
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$1.36

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $24.5
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $115.5
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$8.3

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.4%
Current value: $17.29
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $122.71
Multiplier: 8.10x
User PnL: -$4.63

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $139.98
Potential profit: $139.77
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$32.58

No position

Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $92.06
Potential payout: $116.53
Potential profit: $24.47
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $34.21

No position

GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $8.29
Potential payout: $110.49
Potential profit: $102.21
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$28.18

No position

Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $19.25
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $90.75
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $12.65

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 91.1%
Current value: $96.16
Potential payout: $105.55
Potential profit: $9.39
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $25.53

Yes position

Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $5.3
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.7
Multiplier: 18.87x
User PnL: $3.2

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.6%
Current value: $19.55
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $80.45
Multiplier: 5.12x
User PnL: $1.95

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $27.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $72.5
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $9.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $735

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $731.97

Yes position

Will BNB dip to $800 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $405.1

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $378.81

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $356.8

No position

Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $242.31

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $208

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $140 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.7

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180

No position

Will River Plate win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.06

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $130 before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.3

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $135.78

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.01

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.94

No position

Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.91

No position

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.9

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.8

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99

Yes position

Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-09?

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?

Yes 37% 100 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 14.7% 400 shares
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 3.8% 90 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 39% 70 shares
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?

Yes 17% 80 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 69% 100 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 13% 50 shares
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score

No 24% 11 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 38% 50 shares
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?

Yes 7.1% 120 shares
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?

Yes 29% 40 shares
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score

Yes 42% 50 shares