0xd046579ffb7034630C0D1F895Ca071561cf4C496-1770129675302

Implied probability: 94.8%
Current value: $212.41
Potential payout: $224.18
Potential profit: $11.77
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $12.36

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $89.25
Potential payout: $92.73
Potential profit: $3.48
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.61

No position

Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 88.2%
Current value: $80.23
Potential payout: $91.01
Potential profit: $10.78
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.59

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $32.85
Potential payout: $73.81
Potential profit: $40.96
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: $7.85

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $72.49
Potential payout: $73
Potential profit: $0.51
User PnL: $2.49

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $71.24
Potential payout: $72.95
Potential profit: $1.71
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $2.84

No position

Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $30.45
Potential payout: $67.68
Potential profit: $37.22
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $0.45

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $50.29
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $8.53
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.29

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $55.59
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $3.24
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $5.59

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $46.26
Potential payout: $57.47
Potential profit: $11.21
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$3.74

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $49.73
Potential payout: $54.95
Potential profit: $5.22
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.27

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $53.82
Potential payout: $54.95
Potential profit: $1.13
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.82

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Implied probability: 94.1%
Current value: $51.68
Potential payout: $54.95
Potential profit: $3.27
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.68

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 41.6%
Current value: $21.25
Potential payout: $51.15
Potential profit: $29.9
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $1.25

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $35.65
Potential payout: $36.17
Potential profit: $0.52
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $5.65

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $19.52
Potential payout: $32.8
Potential profit: $13.28
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.48

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $22.73
Potential payout: $25.97
Potential profit: $3.25
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $2.73

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14.2%
Current value: $2.74
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $16.49
Multiplier: 7.02x
User PnL: -$0.26

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $11.51
Potential payout: $15.87
Potential profit: $4.37
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $1.51

No position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $13.42
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $1.58
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.92

No position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $12
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $3
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $0.75

No position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2026

Implied probability: 63%
Current value: $9.26
Potential payout: $14.71
Potential profit: $5.44
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: -$0.74

No position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $7.4
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.6
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 17.3%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $5.41
Potential profit: $4.47
Multiplier: 5.77x
User PnL: -$0.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Connecticut Huskies position

Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.12

Yes position

Will Troy win the 2026 Sun Belt conference championship?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $177.28

Akron Zips position

Toledo Rockets vs. Akron Zips

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.14

Texas Tech Red Raiders position

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.47

VCU Rams position

VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.56

Yes position

Will McNeese win the 2026 Southland conference championship?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.12

UC Davis Aggies position

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. UC Davis Aggies

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.52

Nevada Wolf Pack position

Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.2

Oklahoma State Cowboys position

Davidson Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.06

Michigan State Spartans position

Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.44

Seattle Redhawks position

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs. Seattle Redhawks

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.57

Montana Grizzlies position

Northern Colorado Bears vs. Montana Grizzlies

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.21

North Dakota Fighting Hawks position

Denver Pioneers vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.5

Arkansas Razorbacks position

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.05

Oklahoma State Cowboys position

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.38

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.74

Arizona State Sun Devils position

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Utah Utes

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.04

Villanova Wildcats position

Villanova Wildcats vs. DePaul Blue Demons

Ends Mar 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.08

Miami Hurricanes position

Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.53

Saint Josephs Hawks position

Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Davidson Wildcats

Ends Mar 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.65

Florida Atlantic Owls position

Temple Owls vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.34

Toledo Rockets position

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets