Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $1.46K
- Potential payout
- $1.51K
- Potential profit
- $47.5
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $101.28
Polymarket Trader
fresh
0xd064251efc30a38c3323e42113656144d4b8c4d1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.49K
- Realized PnL
- $8.37K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $752.5
- Potential payout
- $860
- Potential profit
- $107.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $34.5
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.13
- Potential payout
- $566.21
- Potential profit
- $565.07
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$8.87
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $194.74
- Potential payout
- $409.98
- Potential profit
- $215.24
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $10.25
No position
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $295.12
- Potential payout
- $300.07
- Potential profit
- $4.95
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.11
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $45.36
- Potential payout
- $245.87
- Potential profit
- $200.51
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $5.36
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $16.17
- Potential payout
- $220
- Potential profit
- $203.83
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$1.97
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $29.86
- Potential payout
- $218.77
- Potential profit
- $188.91
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $198.9
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$48.9
Y
Yes position
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $17.25
- Potential payout
- $149.99
- Potential profit
- $132.74
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$67.05
Yes position
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.79
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.07
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $105.64
- Potential payout
- $106.38
- Potential profit
- $0.74
- User PnL
- $5.64
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $100.01
- Potential profit
- $99.96
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$38.94
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $86
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$17
N
No position
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $89
- Potential payout
- $91.66
- Potential profit
- $2.66
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $5.01
N
No position
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $87.75
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $2.25
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $4.95
No position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.6%
- Current value
- $65.11
- Potential payout
- $85
- Potential profit
- $19.89
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $1.92
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.4%
- Current value
- $62.69
- Potential payout
- $71.72
- Potential profit
- $9.04
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.31
Yes position
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $52.85
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $17.15
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $14.25
Y
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $8.75
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $61.25
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$12.75
N
No position
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $68.29
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $1.72
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $5.28
No position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $64.94
- Potential payout
- $68.04
- Potential profit
- $3.1
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
No position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $10.63
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $51.88
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $44.19
- Potential payout
- $60.95
- Potential profit
- $16.76
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $1.79
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.06K
Yes position
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3K
Yes position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $863.7
Yes position
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $585.31
Yes position
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $314.44
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $289.57
Yes position
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250.19
No position
Will Workday Q1 total subscription revenue backlog be above $27.5B?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $247.87
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $246.62
Yes position
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $228.07
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $208.54
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.36
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.14
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.99
Yes position
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.4
No position
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.46
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.85
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.55
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.8
No position
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.55B?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.3
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.86
Yes position
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.98
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.94
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.13
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?Yes 98.9% 101.11 shares
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?No 99.7% 100.27 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 86% 30 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 91.9% 20 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Yes 99.9% 50 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?No 92.6% 30 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No 52% 30 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No 51.9% 5 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 82.3% 60 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 68% 55 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 99.9% 70 shares
- Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 12% 29.99 shares