Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $21.43
- Potential payout
- $23.31
- Potential profit
- $1.88
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
Polymarket Trader
Auroraglade
0xd0b6ad5038b7cc0d0696c5bd22e4efed68bb288d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $21.43
- Realized PnL
- $73.23
- Win rate
- 63.6%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 11
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Hawks position
Hawks vs. Heat
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.77
- Potential profit
- $22.77
- User PnL
- -$15.26
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.96
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.53
Up position
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.78
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.7
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.53
No position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.99
No position
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in May?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$47.27
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 94.4% 23.31 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 88.8% 22.53 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ETDown 46.7% 106.96 shares
- XRP Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ETUp 44.7% 44.78 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No 80.9% 166.28 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No 63.7% 166.29 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No 81% 72.46 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No 69% 72.46 shares
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in May?No 47.6% 112.33 shares
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in May?No 89.6% 112.33 shares
- Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on June 30?No 96.4% 104.65 shares
- Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on June 30?No 96.5% 104.66 shares