No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150K
- Potential profit
- $150K
- User PnL
- -$199.95
Polymarket Trader
reasoningTokens
0xd0d9bc316073acb95addf458c2246517a3889074
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.33K
- Realized PnL
- $4.45K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $6K
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.06K
- Potential profit
- $5.06K
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $1.72K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $2.28K
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- $950.03
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $315.11
- Potential payout
- $3.71K
- Potential profit
- $3.39K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$484.89
Yes position
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.31K
- Potential profit
- $3.31K
- User PnL
- -$2.09K
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.77K
- Potential profit
- $1.77K
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- User PnL
- -$96.33
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $162.17
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $996.21
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$437.83
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $714.29
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $516.37
- Potential profit
- $516.37
- User PnL
- -$281.72
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.2%
- Current value
- $135.4
- Potential payout
- $463.69
- Potential profit
- $328.29
- Multiplier
- 3.42x
- User PnL
- $35.4
Yes position
Will Outdoor Boys post another video by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $391.33
- Potential profit
- $391.33
- User PnL
- -$21
Yes position
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.38
- Potential profit
- $333.38
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $238.1
- Potential profit
- $238.1
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $161.29
- Potential profit
- $161.29
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $152.27
- Potential profit
- $152.27
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $131.63
- Potential profit
- $131.63
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $131.04
- Potential profit
- $131.04
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $107.79
- Potential profit
- $107.79
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $2.25
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $97.75
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- -$17.75
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6K
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27K
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $987.07
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.7
Yes position
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.86
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.15
Yes position
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.41
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.84
No position
U.S. fertility rate up in Q2 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.14
No position
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
Will anyone say "Cosmos" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call?
Ends Aug 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.9
No position
Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.42
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.65
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?
Ends Aug 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.74
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.69
No position
Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.31
Yes position
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.23
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.97
Yes position
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.59
No position
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.17
Yes position
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62
Yes position
Will anyone say "Professional" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call?
Ends Aug 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
No position
Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event on September 9?
Ends Sep 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Ends Jan 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?Yes 0.1% 6,000 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 21.6% 463.69 shares
- Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes 63.9% 1,078.06 shares
- Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes 63.9% 1,565.46 shares
- Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes 60.4% 661.74 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 55.2% 181.28 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 51.2% 977.1 shares
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?No 31.4% 2,131.86 shares
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?No 21.8% 3,207.19 shares
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?No 20% 500 shares
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?No 5.4% 1,868.22 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 11.6% 7.63 shares