No position
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $9.96
- Potential payout
- $15.09
- Potential profit
- $5.13
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.37
Polymarket Trader
0xd10A59fCC18955EeAebd06D1234Cc3BD1e3fB9cD-1782111984332
0xd10a59fcc18955eeaebd06d1234cc3bd1e3fb9cd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $123.85
- Realized PnL
- $20.47
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.43
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $13.58
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$1.17
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $3.3
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $11.7
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.06
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $14.94
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.39
Yes position
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $1.73
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $13.28
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $9.68
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $5.32
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- -$0.87
N
No position
Will Kate Marshall win the 2026 Reno mayoral election?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $2.78
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $12.23
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.92
Yes position
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $3.07
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $11.93
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Sep 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 56%
- Current value
- $8.4
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $6.6
- Multiplier
- 1.79x
- User PnL
- -$2.65
No position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $6.38
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $8.63
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $0.28
Y
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $4.58
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $10.43
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
No position
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $10.88
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $4.13
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $6.53
No position
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Current value
- $5.25
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $9.75
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Yes position
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be below 0%?
Ends Feb 12, 2027- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $2.02
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $12.97
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.57
N
No position
Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $12.11
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $1.89
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
Yes position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $2.93
- Potential payout
- $13.34
- Potential profit
- $10.41
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$0.73
Yes position
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.7%
- Current value
- $10.38
- Potential payout
- $11.98
- Potential profit
- $1.6
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$0.64
Yes position
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $0.72
- Potential payout
- $11.04
- Potential profit
- $10.32
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.89
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $10.33
- Potential profit
- $9.29
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $8.53
- Potential payout
- $10.28
- Potential profit
- $1.75
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $8.3
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $1.71
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.89
Yes position
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Ends Oct 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $2.55
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.45
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $3.85
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $6.15
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $3.95
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $6.05
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.85
Yes position
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.85
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $1.45
Yes position
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $1.4
Yes position
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $0.95
Yes position
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $0.92
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $0.85
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32%
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- $0.85
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.7
No position
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- $0.65
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- $0.6
Y
Yes position
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.55
No position
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $0.55
No position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.52
Y
Yes position
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Y
Yes position
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Ends Oct 24, 2027- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- $0.5
N
No position
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?Yes 70% 8 shares
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?No 89% 10 shares
- Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%?Yes 46% 5 shares
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?No 96.1% 10 shares
- Will the Democratic Party win the MD-06 House seat?Yes 93% 5 shares
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes 77% 5 shares
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31?Yes 90% 5 shares
- Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No 81% 5 shares
- Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in July?No 55% 5 shares
- Will Future feature 2 Chainz on "The Real Me"?No 55% 5 shares
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?No 34% 5 shares
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-05 House seat?Yes 89% 5 shares