Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $83.13
- Potential payout
- $95
- Potential profit
- $11.88
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
Polymarket Trader
maxkisel
0xd11a13f0208a1316909b04371ea973e8ffc4ed7d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $198.66
- Realized PnL
- $142.46
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?
Ends Jul 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.4%
- Current value
- $6.86
- Potential payout
- $66.3
- Potential profit
- $59.44
- Multiplier
- 9.66x
- User PnL
- -$4.27
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $6.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $43.25
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$8.75
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $11.97
- Potential payout
- $38
- Potential profit
- $26.03
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$2.85
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $26.1
- Potential payout
- $36
- Potential profit
- $9.9
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $22.23
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $12.77
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $0.18
Y
Yes position
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51%
- Current value
- $15.3
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $14.7
- Multiplier
- 1.96x
- User PnL
- -$5.4
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $13.5
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.14
No position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $12.83
- Potential payout
- $13
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.69
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.21
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.2
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.52
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.86
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.75
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.4
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $4.58
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $4.15
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $3.74
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.72
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $3.45
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.44
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.22
No position
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.59
No position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.44
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 88% 95 shares
- Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?Yes 16.8% 60 shares
- Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?Yes 16.7% 6.3 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Yes 69% 30 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes 63% 35 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Yes 39% 38 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 70% 36 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 99.6% 24 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 24 shares
- Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?No 78% 13 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 74% 14 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 63% 9.26 shares