No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $307.64
- Potential payout
- $535.02
- Potential profit
- $227.38
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$39.58
Polymarket Trader
StiflersMoom
0xd11c5a4e5716825d8e62dffae2b5b56428660d06
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.47K
- Realized PnL
- $574.72
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $356.49
- Potential payout
- $402.81
- Potential profit
- $46.32
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $11.4
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $347.91
- Potential payout
- $397.61
- Potential profit
- $49.7
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $41.42
No position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $326.42
- Potential payout
- $364.72
- Potential profit
- $38.3
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $19.28
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $247.39
- Potential payout
- $311.18
- Potential profit
- $63.79
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $22.73
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $290.81
- Potential payout
- $290.81
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $7.86
No position
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $88.71
- Potential payout
- $243.04
- Potential profit
- $154.33
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$7.06
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $227.61
- Potential payout
- $227.61
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $5.35
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $217.81
- Potential profit
- $217.81
- User PnL
- -$58.11
No position
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $172.13
- Potential payout
- $172.13
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $11.36
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $151.39
- Potential payout
- $171.07
- Potential profit
- $19.67
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $12.87
No position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $125.28
- Potential payout
- $132.01
- Potential profit
- $6.73
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $3.95
No position
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $109.32
- Potential payout
- $124.22
- Potential profit
- $14.91
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $6.18
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $110.91
- Potential payout
- $110.91
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.33
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $81.97
- Potential payout
- $108.57
- Potential profit
- $26.6
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $4.48
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $65.49
- Potential payout
- $108.26
- Potential profit
- $42.76
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $9.56
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100.72
- Potential profit
- $100.72
- User PnL
- -$16.8
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $93.24
- Potential payout
- $93.24
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $11.78
No position
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $76.8
- Potential payout
- $87.77
- Potential profit
- $10.97
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.58
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $87.39
- Potential payout
- $87.39
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.24
No position
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $81.33
- Potential payout
- $81.33
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.37
No position
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45%
- Current value
- $26.84
- Potential payout
- $59.64
- Potential profit
- $32.8
- Multiplier
- 2.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $58.71
- Potential payout
- $58.71
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $14.09
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $37.34
- Potential payout
- $37.34
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $275.46
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.33
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.45
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.39
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.82
No position
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.24
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.78
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.44
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.83
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.76
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.22
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.13
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.68
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.31
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.14
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.56
Yes position
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.37
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.9
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.57
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.56
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.53
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.06
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.97
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No 47% 2.34 shares
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?No 50% 37.54 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 39.1% 11.13 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 40% 13.1 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 40% 2.78 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 40% 2.5 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 40% 2.7 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?No 71% 6.58 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?No 70% 2.06 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?No 70% 1.9 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 39% 2.95 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 40% 83.78 shares