jijitmu

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $40.2
Potential payout: $5.36K
Potential profit: $5.32K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $10.82

No position

Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $2.48K
Potential payout: $2.54K
Potential profit: $57.12
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$16.7

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $740b and $760b on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $5.3
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.17K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $3.78

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $720b and $740b on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $3.3
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $4.37
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$0.63

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $696.32
Potential payout: $892.72
Potential profit: $196.4
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: -$62.49

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $760b and $780b on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $867.15
Potential profit: $866.28
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $801.02
Potential payout: $856.7
Potential profit: $55.69
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $66.44

Yes position

Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $280.39
Potential payout: $667.59
Potential profit: $387.2
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: -$44.42

Yes position

Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $285.97
Potential payout: $602.03
Potential profit: $316.07
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$38.87

Yes position

Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $599.7
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.7

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $780b and $800b on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.9
Potential payout: $580.59
Potential profit: $577.69
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: $2.06

Yes position

Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $553
Potential profit: $552.72
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.99

Yes position

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $3.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $496.75
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $11.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $488.75
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $5.75

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $60.92
Potential payout: $474.1
Potential profit: $413.18
Multiplier: 7.78x
User PnL: $29.75

No position

Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $410.78
Potential payout: $458.98
Potential profit: $48.19
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $144.58

Yes position

Will Ed Sheeran perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $4.77
Potential payout: $454.43
Potential profit: $449.66
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$7.44

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $5.8
Potential payout: $446.1
Potential profit: $440.3
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: $1.13

No position

Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $15.91
Potential payout: $435.78
Potential profit: $419.87
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: $1.59

No position

Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $411.08
Potential payout: $435
Potential profit: $23.93
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $11.08

No position

Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30?

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $323.9
Potential payout: $340.95
Potential profit: $17.05
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $42.14

Yes position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $114.86
Potential payout: $319.06
Potential profit: $204.2
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: -$56.71

Yes position

Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $2.78
Potential payout: $309.05
Potential profit: $306.27
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$11.44

Yes position

Will Guido Crosetto be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Ends Dec 31, 2028

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $280.68
Potential profit: $279.7
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $102.25
Potential payout: $237.8
Potential profit: $135.54
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?

Ends Jan 12, 2027

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $180.59
Potential payout: $237.62
Potential profit: $57.03
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$3.24

Yes position

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $4.28
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $195.72
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: $0.48

No position

Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $174.68
Potential payout: $190.91
Potential profit: $16.23
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $15.16

Yes position

Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Ends Dec 31, 2028

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $2.31
Potential payout: $177.88
Potential profit: $175.57
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Evo Morales arrested by June 30?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $14.4
Potential payout: $159.99
Potential profit: $145.59
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $69.39
Potential payout: $159.51
Potential profit: $90.12
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$12.91

Yes position

Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $19.46
Potential payout: $134.19
Potential profit: $114.73
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.54

No position

Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by June 30?

Implied probability: 84.3%
Current value: $105.58
Potential payout: $125.24
Potential profit: $19.66
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: -$7.13

No position

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Implied probability: 88.3%
Current value: $105.9
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $14.1
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $5.77

Yes position

Will Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $5.11
Potential payout: $109.98
Potential profit: $104.87
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $95.86
Potential payout: $109.56
Potential profit: $13.69
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$4.14

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 9.4%
Current value: $9.97
Potential payout: $106.04
Potential profit: $96.07
Multiplier: 10.64x
User PnL: $7.53

Yes position

Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by August 30?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $97.94
Potential payout: $104.19
Potential profit: $6.25
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$2.06

Yes position

Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 0.0%?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $75
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: $23

Yes position

Will "Spider" be said 4+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $85
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 23, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $4.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.05
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: $1.95

Yes position

Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $96.49
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$8.5

Yes position

Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?

Ends Jan 12, 2027

Implied probability: 14.8%
Current value: $14.13
Potential payout: $95.81
Potential profit: $81.68
Multiplier: 6.78x
User PnL: $13.13

Yes position

FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $61.47
Potential payout: $94.57
Potential profit: $33.1
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $8.48

Yes position

Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $5.54
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $84.47
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $7.57
Potential payout: $89
Potential profit: $81.44
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.78

No position

Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $51.69
Potential payout: $87.61
Potential profit: $35.92
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: $7.88

No position

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $79.01
Potential payout: $85.42
Potential profit: $6.41
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.26

No position

E. Jean Carroll federally charged by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $73.17
Potential payout: $85.08
Potential profit: $11.91
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $17.92

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.61K

Yes position

Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $315.72

Yes position

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $217.55

No position

Will Grey Target by Johns sell for $30M or more?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $208.9

Yes position

Pooh Shiesty charged by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.62

Yes position

Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $5.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149.02

Yes position

Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $141.33

Yes position

Will Danaïde by Brancusi sell for $95M or more?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125

Under position

FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.76

Yes position

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.65

No position

Will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure Through May 21, 10 PM ET?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.3

Yes position

Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.4

Yes position

Will J Balvin perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: $98.19

Yes position

FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.03

Yes position

Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.75 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.51

Yes position

Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $80.68

No position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?

Implied probability: 87%
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $79.92

No position

Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.30 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.14

Yes position

Will Lille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.24

Yes position

Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $6.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.11

Yes position

Will voter turnout be between 85% and 90% in the 2026 Maltese general election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.66

Yes position

Will Number 7A by Pollock sell for $125M or more?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.16

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $62.92

Yes position

Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.45

No position

Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.97

No position

Will José Carlos Aleluia win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $52.15

Yes position

Will Tête de femme by Picasso sell for $47M or more?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

No position

Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 255,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.53

No position

Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.24

No position

Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.7

Yes position

Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.48

No position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $48.43

No position

Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 99%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $48

Yes position

Will voter turnout be less than 85% in the 2026 Maltese general election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.81

No position

Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 89.6%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $45.45

Yes position

Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.88

No position

X Money released by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.05

Yes position

Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.50 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.05

Yes position

Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.23

Yes position

Will AD+PD win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $33.44

Yes position

Will Rennes finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $32

Yes position

Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $29.69

No position

Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.75 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.32

Yes position

Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be above 3%?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.01

No position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27.7

Yes position

Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.56

Yes position

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?

Implied probability: 33.3%
Multiplier: 3.01x
User PnL: $27.02

Yes position

Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?