Polymarket Trader

tshorter

0xd20f0842a7994dc07778a49d456a27960a76abc1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $143.66
Realized PnL: $595.61
Win rate: 54.2%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.21K
Potential profit: $5.21K
User PnL: -$61

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.02K
Potential profit: $2.02K
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.72K
Potential profit: $1.72K
User PnL: -$174

Yes position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $1.29K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.15K
User PnL: -$75

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.64
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$49.36

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $588.24
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $117.74
Potential payout: $413.27
Potential profit: $295.53
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$24.28

Yes position

Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $402.58
Potential profit: $402.58
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $318.99
Potential profit: $318.99
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $253.13
Potential profit: $253.13
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $10.35
Potential payout: $183.2
Potential profit: $172.85
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$7.42

Yes position

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $13.21
Potential payout: $176.13
Potential profit: $162.92
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$6.79

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.71
Potential payout: $33.28
Potential profit: $32.57
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$1.39

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.08

Yes position

Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?

Ends Aug 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.29

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.25

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.06

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 35-36°F on February 21?

Ends Feb 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.5

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.97

Yes position

Will Trump say 'trans' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Ends Mar 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.67

No position

Will Trump say 'AI' or 'artificial intelligence' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Ends Mar 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

No position

Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21?

Ends Feb 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.25

No position

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.36

Yes position

Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.33

Yes position

Will Trump and Elon say "trans" or "transgender during their Feb 18 interview?

Ends Feb 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.84

Yes position

Will Trump and Elon say "woke" during their Feb 18 interview?

Ends Feb 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Another US strike on Venezuela on January 9?

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Trump say 'term limit' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Ends Mar 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Trump and Elon say "fentanyl" during their Feb 18 interview?

Ends Feb 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump say 'inflation' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?

Ends Mar 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump and Elon say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their Feb 18 interview?

Ends Feb 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Trump and Elon say "October 7" during their Feb 18 interview?

Ends Feb 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?

Yes 6.1% 907.42 shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

No 34.4% 413.27 shares
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Yes 11.4% 176.13 shares
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?

Yes 6.3% 318.99 shares
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?

Yes 1.7% 588.24 shares
Trump out as President by March 31?

Yes 1.5% 1,293.01 shares
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?

Yes 4% 744.51 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Yes 11.3% 1,011.83 shares
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Yes 1.6% 1,820.54 shares
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Yes 6.5% 1,153.4 shares
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

Yes 8% 250 shares
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?

Yes 4% 253.13 shares