Polymarket Trader

cigarettes

@friendlyping

0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $20.49K
Realized PnL: $3.21M
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $389.93
Potential payout: $779.85K
Potential profit: $779.46K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$16.84K

Yes position

Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $385.81
Potential payout: $771.62K
Potential profit: $771.23K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$16.2K

Yes position

Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.41
Potential payout: $768.82K
Potential profit: $768.44K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.31K

Yes position

Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.41
Potential payout: $768.82K
Potential profit: $768.44K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.31K

Yes position

Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.41
Potential payout: $768.82K
Potential profit: $768.44K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.31K

Yes position

Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.41
Potential payout: $768.82K
Potential profit: $768.44K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.31K

Yes position

Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.41
Potential payout: $768.82K
Potential profit: $768.44K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.31K

Yes position

Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.38
Potential payout: $768.77K
Potential profit: $768.38K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.3K

Yes position

Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.38
Potential payout: $768.76K
Potential profit: $768.38K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.3K

Yes position

Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.38
Potential payout: $768.76K
Potential profit: $768.38K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.3K

Yes position

Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.38
Potential payout: $768.76K
Potential profit: $768.38K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.3K

Yes position

Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.37
Potential payout: $768.75K
Potential profit: $768.36K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.3K

Yes position

Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.37
Potential payout: $768.75K
Potential profit: $768.36K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.3K

Yes position

Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.28
Potential payout: $768.57K
Potential profit: $768.18K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.3K

Yes position

Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $384.27
Potential payout: $768.55K
Potential profit: $768.16K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.3K

Yes position

Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $383.32
Potential payout: $766.64K
Potential profit: $766.25K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.26K

Yes position

Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $382.77
Potential payout: $765.53K
Potential profit: $765.15K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.24K

Yes position

Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $382.73
Potential payout: $765.46K
Potential profit: $765.08K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.24K

Yes position

Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $382.49
Potential payout: $764.97K
Potential profit: $764.59K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.23K

Yes position

Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $380.37
Potential payout: $760.75K
Potential profit: $760.37K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$15.14K

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.04K
Potential payout: $692.19K
Potential profit: $691.15K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$13.09K

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $315.6
Potential payout: $70.13K
Potential profit: $69.82K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$987.28

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $7.64K
Potential payout: $41.43K
Potential profit: $33.79K
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $1.77K

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $3.81K
Potential payout: $37.92K
Potential profit: $34.11K
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: $89.18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?

Ends Jan 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $392.6K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?

Ends Jan 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $328.28K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $243.88K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $239.5K

No position

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $179.4K

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $138.19K

Yes position

Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $129.43K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?

Ends Jan 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $116.69K

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?

Ends May 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $113.84K

Yes position

Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.33K

Yes position

Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $100.3K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $100.02K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $94.33K

Yes position

Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $93.48K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?

Ends May 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $90.82K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $90.27K

Yes position

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $89.09K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $87.92K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $84.34K

49ers position

49ers vs. Eagles

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.78K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $82.61K

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $77.79K

Yes position

Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $73.62K

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $72.17K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half

Yes 17% 94.69 shares
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5

Over 3.1% 459.14 shares
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half

Yes 15% 112 shares
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half

Yes 15% 27.79 shares
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half

Yes 15% 10.34 shares
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 12% 10 shares
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 12% 10 shares
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 12% 50 shares
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 12% 16 shares
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5

Over 1% 132.91 shares
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5

Over 1% 177.46 shares
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?

No 3% 100 shares