0xD222ac4160bE5850C7fA435E7131d9e7cd47fDB5-1766006684362

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $148.63
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.42K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$92.56

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.31K
Potential profit: $1.31K
User PnL: -$172

Yes position

Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $62.69
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $1.03K
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$34.28

Yes position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $95.59
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $910.66
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$135.55

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.55
Potential payout: $621.49
Potential profit: $619.93
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$59.08

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $28.48
Potential payout: $569.64
Potential profit: $541.16
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $20.78
Potential payout: $500.84
Potential profit: $480.05
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$23.21

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $50.28
Potential payout: $478.84
Potential profit: $428.56
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$15.52

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $477.52
Potential profit: $477.52
User PnL: -$9.36

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 14.7%
Current value: $49.19
Potential payout: $335.78
Potential profit: $286.59
Multiplier: 6.83x
User PnL: $18.05

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $35.08
Potential payout: $305.07
Potential profit: $269.99
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$4.92

Yes position

Will Bank of America fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $299.77
Potential profit: $298.72
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$12.45

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $210.23
Potential profit: $210.23
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $30.23
Potential payout: $208.51
Potential profit: $178.28
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$12.77

Yes position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $38.3
Potential payout: $201.56
Potential profit: $163.26
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$11.41

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $22.57
Potential payout: $180.54
Potential profit: $157.97
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$7.43

Yes position

Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $80.05
Potential payout: $179.88
Potential profit: $99.83
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$2.45

Yes position

Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 49%
Current value: $50.14
Potential payout: $102.32
Potential profit: $52.18
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: -$3.86

Yes position

Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $19.18
Potential payout: $72.38
Potential profit: $53.2
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$1.32

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $33.53
Potential payout: $72.1
Potential profit: $38.57
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $1.53

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $18.61
Potential payout: $70.21
Potential profit: $51.61
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $0.61

Yes position

Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $39.61
Potential payout: $64.93
Potential profit: $25.32
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: -$0.39

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.66
Potential profit: $50.66
User PnL: -$10.5

Yes position

Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $29.26
Potential payout: $45.01
Potential profit: $15.75
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $0.26

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $506.06

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $406.06

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.56

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.09

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.51

Yes position

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.69

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.69

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.55

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.96

Yes position

Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.94

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.61

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.19

Yes position

Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.83

Yes position

Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.18

Yes position

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.09

Yes position

Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.37

Yes position

Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

No position

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $3.8

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.84

Yes position

Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $0.58

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 53.5%
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?