No position
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $25.66K
- Potential payout
- $29.32K
- Potential profit
- $3.67K
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.61K
Polymarket Trader
OraculumNobius
@OraculumNobius
0xd25b8718f61fb64a754356ad8cf16b5579f59f3d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $115.84K
- Realized PnL
- $23.85K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 42
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $12.6K
- Potential payout
- $12.69K
- Potential profit
- $88.8
- User PnL
- $50.43
No position
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $10.96K
- Potential payout
- $11.03K
- Potential profit
- $71.72
- User PnL
- $545.53
No position
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $10.02K
- Potential payout
- $10.11K
- Potential profit
- $90.98
- User PnL
- $142.74
No position
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $6.62K
- Potential payout
- $6.67K
- Potential profit
- $50.01
- User PnL
- $116.44
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $5.63K
- Potential payout
- $5.63K
- Potential profit
- $5.63
- User PnL
- $11.23
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.18K
- Potential payout
- $5.18K
- Potential profit
- $2.59
- User PnL
- $19.56
No position
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $4.58K
- Potential payout
- $4.62K
- Potential profit
- $34.63
- User PnL
- $151.53
No position
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $4K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $2
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $4K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $2
- User PnL
- $6.01
No position
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $3.31K
- Potential payout
- $3.31K
- Potential profit
- $1.65
- User PnL
- $4.28
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $2.99K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $6
- User PnL
- -$0.99
No position
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $2.78K
- Potential payout
- $2.8K
- Potential profit
- $16.78
- User PnL
- $37.26
No position
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $2.51K
- Potential payout
- $2.52K
- Potential profit
- $17.67
- User PnL
- $107.99
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.03K
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $0.52
- User PnL
- $0.55
No position
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $999.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $999.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $999.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $999.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $999.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $999.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $999.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $999.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $950.32
- Potential payout
- $950.8
- Potential profit
- $0.48
- User PnL
- $0.48
No position
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $915.12
- Potential payout
- $915.58
- Potential profit
- $0.46
- User PnL
- $0.46
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $858.98
- Potential payout
- $859.41
- Potential profit
- $0.43
- User PnL
- $0.43
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $719.56
- Potential payout
- $719.92
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $540.27
- Potential payout
- $540.54
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $423.09
- Potential payout
- $424.15
- Potential profit
- $1.06
- User PnL
- $10.19
No position
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $321.22
- Potential payout
- $321.38
- Potential profit
- $0.16
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $312.59
- Potential payout
- $312.75
- Potential profit
- $0.16
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $173.2
- Potential payout
- $173.29
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $160.37
- Potential payout
- $160.45
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $159.86
- Potential payout
- $159.94
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $150
- Potential payout
- $150.08
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $109.51
- Potential payout
- $109.56
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $0.05
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $56.97
- Potential payout
- $57
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $46.84
- Potential payout
- $46.86
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $38.82
- Potential payout
- $38.84
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.02
Down position
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $34.98
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $15.92
- Potential payout
- $15.93
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.44K
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.12K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.96K
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.47K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $877.63
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $716.72
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $587.01
No position
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $543.77
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $541.02
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $538.57
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $502.55
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $483.46
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $442.02
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $407.92
No position
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 2?
Ends Jan 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $391.78
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $347.54
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $337.98
No position
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $318.01
No position
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $312.11
No position
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet by August 23?
Ends Aug 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $296.6
No position
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $283.84
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $274.67
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 8?
Ends Feb 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $266.94
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February 10?
Ends Feb 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $266.49
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on February 22?
Ends Feb 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $266.21
No position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $265.08
No position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $253.98
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $247.16
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $228.95
Up position
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 24?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $228.17
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $228.08
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $212.68
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $199.33
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 19?
Ends Feb 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.17
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 19?
Ends Feb 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.09
Yes position
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.41
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $193.74
Yes position
Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $193.31
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $187.1
No position
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of April 27 above $395?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183.13
No position
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7?
Ends Feb 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179
No position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $178.47
No position
Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.91
No position
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.32
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.92
No position
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 6?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.82
Yes position
Ripple above $2.15 on January 3?
Ends Jan 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.99
No position
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.59
No position
Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14?
Ends Mar 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.71
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19?No 99.9% 415.58 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19?No 99.9% 357.96 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19?No 99.9% 1,000 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19?No 99.9% 1,000 shares
- Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on targetNo 99.9% 35 shares
- Michel Aebischer: 1+ shots on targetNo 99.9% 35 shares
- Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match?No 99.9% 164.78 shares
- Fabian Rieder: 1+ assistsNo 99.9% 35 shares
- Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on targetYes 99.9% 30 shares
- Silvan Widmer: 1+ shots on targetNo 99.9% 35 shares
- Ermedin Demirović: 1+ shotsNo 99.9% 35 shares
- Remo Freuler: 3+ shotsNo 99.9% 35 shares