tony778

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $2.13K
Potential payout: $2.3K
Potential profit: $172.5
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $178.89

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $262.48
Potential payout: $299.98
Potential profit: $37.5
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $7.36

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $280.22
Potential payout: $290.83
Potential profit: $10.62
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $28.23

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $103.74
Potential payout: $125.74
Potential profit: $22
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $2.35

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $63.94
Potential payout: $121.79
Potential profit: $57.85
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $4.83
Potential payout: $58.25
Potential profit: $53.42
Multiplier: 12.05x
User PnL: $0.54

No position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $21.22
Potential payout: $22.69
Potential profit: $1.47
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.19

No position

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $14.06
Potential payout: $19.94
Potential profit: $5.88
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $4.09

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $14.6
Potential payout: $16.49
Potential profit: $1.9
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 90.2%
Current value: $12.01
Potential payout: $13.32
Potential profit: $1.3
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $2.01

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $2.65
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.35
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $2.74
Potential payout: $4.94
Potential profit: $2.2
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$0.26

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $3.53
Potential payout: $3.86
Potential profit: $0.33
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $2.27
Potential payout: $2.53
Potential profit: $0.27
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $2.28
Potential payout: $2.41
Potential profit: $0.13
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.28

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 65.6%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $1.45
Potential profit: $0.5
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$0.05

RED Canids Academy position

Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Playoffs

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.41
Potential profit: $1.41
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $331.65

Yes position

Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.55

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.09

Yes position

Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.98

Yes position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.52

No position

Trump out as President in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.69

No position

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.27

Yes position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.12

Raptors position

Raptors vs. Hornets

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.3

No position

Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.19

Yes position

Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.9

No position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.53

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.53

Pacers position

Celtics vs. Pacers

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

Jazz position

Mavericks vs. Jazz

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.15

Pacers position

Pacers vs. Hornets

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.8

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.75

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds position

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds vs. Army Black Knights

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.75

Lightning position

Avalanche vs. Lightning

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.75

Miami (OH) RedHawks position

Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Toledo Rockets

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET