0xD35694160B7Bc6F734aB2e95072686ACEb1A963d-1770830259364

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $85.61
Potential payout: $684.9
Potential profit: $599.29
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$79.49

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $636.4
Potential profit: $636.4
User PnL: -$101.57

Yes position

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $35.94
Potential payout: $532.44
Potential profit: $496.5
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$51.18

Yes position

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $406.88
Potential profit: $406.88
User PnL: -$101.93

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $25.96
Potential payout: $370.9
Potential profit: $344.94
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$33.79

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $252.4
Potential profit: $252.4
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.6%
Current value: $60.64
Potential payout: $236.86
Potential profit: $176.22
Multiplier: 3.91x
User PnL: $15.63

Yes position

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $229.02
Potential profit: $229.02
User PnL: -$88

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $16.88
Potential payout: $225.08
Potential profit: $208.2
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$28.14

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $16.07
Potential payout: $214.22
Potential profit: $198.15
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$28.92

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $14.76
Potential payout: $196.82
Potential profit: $182.06
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$16.73

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $118.72
Potential profit: $118.72
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $87.56
Potential profit: $87.56
User PnL: -$35.6

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86.53
Potential profit: $86.53
User PnL: -$44.99

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.04
Potential profit: $72.04
User PnL: -$35

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.98
Potential profit: $66.98
User PnL: -$32.73

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $38.38
Potential payout: $63.44
Potential profit: $25.06
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $13.64

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.35
Potential profit: $59.35
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 40.7%
Current value: $18.48
Potential payout: $45.37
Potential profit: $26.89
Multiplier: 2.45x
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.4
Potential profit: $38.4
User PnL: -$9.98

Yes position

Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-22?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.59
Potential profit: $36.59
User PnL: -$13.77

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.6
Potential profit: $30.6
User PnL: -$4.79

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.75
Potential profit: $19.75
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19
Potential profit: $19
User PnL: -$9.88

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $262.5

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.84

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.75

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.86

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.76

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.92

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.31

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.9

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.69

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.17

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.84

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.17

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.99

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.89

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $34.48

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.84

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.26

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.32

Yes position

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.45

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.25

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.56

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.61

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?