Polymarket Trader

operationcastle

0xd3a6e523c440f94f9259398fbcf7b5cc5ccffd55

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $142.52K
Realized PnL: $739.58K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $46.29
Potential payout: $92.58K
Potential profit: $92.53K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$7.42K

Yes position

Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $29.77
Potential payout: $59.55K
Potential profit: $59.52K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.99K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $50K
User PnL: -$8.85K

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $35.56K
Potential payout: $35.62K
Potential profit: $53.42
User PnL: $9.28K

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $32.5K
Potential payout: $32.74K
Potential profit: $245.58
User PnL: $8.01K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $1.6K
Potential payout: $31.76K
Potential profit: $30.16K
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: $492.35

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $24.65K
Potential payout: $25.01K
Potential profit: $362.62
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $6.39K

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25K
Potential profit: $25K
User PnL: -$9.55K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 7.1%
Current value: $1.67K
Potential payout: $23.34K
Potential profit: $21.67K
Multiplier: 14.01x
User PnL: $336.04

Yes position

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.53K
Potential profit: $21.53K
User PnL: -$8.21K

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $19.85K
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: $4.65K

Yes position

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $19.99K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$259.76

No position

Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.18K
Potential profit: $19.18K
User PnL: -$6.58K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $14.66K
Potential payout: $14.7K
Potential profit: $36.74
User PnL: $5.71K

No position

Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $10.12K
Potential payout: $12.57K
Potential profit: $2.45K
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $948.13

Yes position

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$4.52K

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$900

No position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$1.6K

No position

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$1.05K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$950

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$1.25K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$1.7K

Curtis Blaydes position

UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.92K
Potential profit: $4.92K
User PnL: -$2.31K

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $1.83K
Potential payout: $4.31K
Potential profit: $2.48K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $883.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.56K

No position

Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.54K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.84K

Yes position

Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.87K

Yes position

Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.39K

Yes position

Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.56K

No position

Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.26K

Yes position

Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.58K

Yes position

Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.4K

Yes position

Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.6K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.37K

Yes position

Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Wednesday?

Ends Jun 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.36K

Yes position

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.57K

No position

Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.51K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.05K

Yes position

GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.28K

Yes position

Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.31K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.5K

Yes position

Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more?

Ends Apr 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.08K

Yes position

Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.32K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.15K

No position

Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.99K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.98K

No position

Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.53K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

No 70% 4,639.51 shares
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

No 80% 5,952.12 shares
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

No 72% 10.53 shares
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

No 58% 367.05 shares
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

No 58% 367.05 shares
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

No 59% 1,232.62 shares
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

No 83.5% 100 shares
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 44% 994 shares
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 55% 1,645.96 shares
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

No 99.8% 11,281.14 shares
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

No 33% 20 shares
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

No 27% 422.6 shares