Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $21
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $179
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$13
Polymarket Trader
aarrxx
0xd3ba840bb14e7c24d8f6bb4555361c5802b6ce27
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $59.95
- Realized PnL
- $155.22
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $26.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $73.5
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$13.5
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $12.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $87.55
- Multiplier
- 8.03x
- User PnL
- -$3.75
No position
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $44
- Potential profit
- $44
- User PnL
- -$22
Yes position
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.16
- Potential profit
- $20.16
- User PnL
- -$15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.41
No position
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $32
No position
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22
Yes position
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17?
Ends Jan 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.33
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.32
No position
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.11
No position
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
Will Solana reach $250 in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
Yes position
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.37
Yes position
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Liverpool wins the Premier League?
Ends May 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.92
Yes position
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring?
Ends Apr 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?Yes 87% 50 shares
- Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 34.2% 50 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?No 27% 0.6 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes 19.3% 20 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?No 27% 32.26 shares
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 76% 50 shares
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Yes 39% 50 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes 33% 20 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?No 27% 17.13 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14No 63% 20 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes 71% 20 shares
- Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11?No 25.8% 20 shares