Polymarket Trader

WilliamAckman

0xd49becdcc6f4fdac2c662469c36e0e45a36b83ef

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $137.38
Realized PnL: $5.69K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.85K
Potential profit: $5.85K
User PnL: -$228.09

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$145

No position

Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

Ends Oct 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.9K
Potential profit: $2.9K
User PnL: -$29

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$225

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$174.64

Yes position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$42

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$118.01

Yes position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $103.38
Potential payout: $898.97
Potential profit: $795.59
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$65.32

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $799.99
Potential profit: $799.99
User PnL: -$107.2

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $750
Potential profit: $750
User PnL: -$29.5

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $34
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $466
Multiplier: 14.71x
User PnL: -$46

Yes position

Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $426
Potential profit: $426
User PnL: -$200.22

Yes position

US recession in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$220

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$240

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $370.7
Potential profit: $370.7
User PnL: -$237.25

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in October?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $366
Potential profit: $366
User PnL: -$29.28

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$19.75

Yes position

Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

Ends Oct 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148
Potential profit: $148
User PnL: -$91.67

No position

Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

Ends Oct 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.41
Potential profit: $6.41
User PnL: -$1.35

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $652.15

Yes position

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

Ends Oct 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $601.58

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $415

Yes position

Will Trump say "gun" 5 or more times during Michigan rally on Nov 4?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $302.6

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $273.9

Yes position

Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November?

Ends Oct 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $260.55

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $238.23

Yes position

Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $231.75

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $230

No position

Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $224.44

Yes position

Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $203.74

Yes position

Will Kamala say "Trump" 3 or more times in her speech after the election is called?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $202

No position

Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?

Ends May 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200.7

Yes position

Will Kamala say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" at debate?

Ends Sep 10, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.88

Yes position

Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.71

Yes position

Will Trump say "border" 15 or more times at debate?

Ends Sep 10, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $170.86

No position

Will Trump say "World War 3" at his Arizona speech?

Ends Aug 23, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.61

Yes position

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?

Ends Sep 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.24

No position

Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $157.43

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "border" 25 or more times during his Uniondale rally?

Ends Sep 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.85

Yes position

Iran strike on Israel before November?

Ends Oct 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.5

No position

Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by December 31?

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.83

Yes position

India x Pakistan military clash before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.19

No position

Kamala Harris blowout victory?

Ends Dec 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Yes 36.1% 299.99 shares
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Yes 33% 499.99 shares
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?

Yes 4% 999 shares
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Yes 72% 400 shares
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?

Yes 64% 370.7 shares
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?

Yes 28% 725.77 shares
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?

Yes 8.7% 2,000 shares
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Yes 34% 1,000 shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Yes 35.8% 900 shares
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 0.5% 13,600 shares
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Yes 16% 500 shares
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Yes 18.8% 898.97 shares