No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $1.45K
- Potential payout
- $1.62K
- Potential profit
- $170.29
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$28.45
Polymarket Trader
trader-d4a83850
0xd4a838505835d45156d8334292fe7522c1d59707
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.36K
- Realized PnL
- $106.42
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $924.89
- Potential payout
- $994.51
- Potential profit
- $69.62
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $24.89
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $497.19
- Potential payout
- $561.8
- Potential profit
- $64.61
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$2.81
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $507.51
- Potential payout
- $514.45
- Potential profit
- $6.95
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $7.51
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $294.26
- Potential payout
- $340.19
- Potential profit
- $45.93
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$12.74
No position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $156.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $43.1
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $56.9
No position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $176.76
- Potential payout
- $181.57
- Potential profit
- $4.81
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.83
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $78.06
- Potential payout
- $126.92
- Potential profit
- $48.86
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$7.13
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $96.3
- Potential payout
- $116.73
- Potential profit
- $20.43
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $1.75
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.8%
- Current value
- $40.12
- Potential payout
- $44.7
- Potential profit
- $4.58
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $9.12
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $22.45
- Potential payout
- $39.75
- Potential profit
- $17.3
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $1.77
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $33.57
- Potential payout
- $35.42
- Potential profit
- $1.84
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.72
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $20.96
- Potential payout
- $21.1
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- User PnL
- $3.21
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $10.47
- Potential payout
- $17.9
- Potential profit
- $7.43
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $0.31
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $17.2
- Potential payout
- $17.37
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- User PnL
- $5.05
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $9.3
- Potential payout
- $9.44
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.09
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.3%
- Current value
- $8.37
- Potential payout
- $9.17
- Potential profit
- $0.8
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.13
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 36%
- Current value
- $2.56
- Potential payout
- $7.11
- Potential profit
- $4.55
- Multiplier
- 2.78x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.4%
- Current value
- $4.78
- Potential payout
- $5.41
- Potential profit
- $0.63
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $3.56
- Potential payout
- $4.12
- Potential profit
- $0.56
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.7%
- Current value
- $3.27
- Potential payout
- $3.61
- Potential profit
- $0.34
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $1.15
- Potential payout
- $1.33
- Potential profit
- $0.18
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Usyk position
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.57
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.62
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.3
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
No position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.13
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.88
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $5.6
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.56
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.17
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.27
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.73
No position
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $1.21
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.88
Yes position
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.81
No position
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 97.2% 514.45 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 89% 561.8 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 46% 28.31 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No 79% 9.17 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 81% 61.73 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes 99.1% 17.3 shares
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 96.2% 25.9 shares
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 96.2% 51.98 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 95% 52.64 shares
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 96.2% 51.98 shares
- Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?No 90.5% 994.51 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 79% 64.64 shares