Polymarket Trader

TBill1

0xd52b8dcb4b812c4056faf41164a6f6c73f4c5c72

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $82.35K
Realized PnL: $183.35K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $295.5
Potential payout: $197K
Potential profit: $196.7K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$98.5

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $8.23K
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $41.78K
Multiplier: 6.08x
User PnL: -$16.78K

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 83.6%
Current value: $41.78K
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $8.23K
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $16.78K

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $660
Potential payout: $40K
Potential profit: $39.34K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$140

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $61.39
Potential payout: $24.56K
Potential profit: $24.5K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$12.28

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.11K
Potential profit: $12.11K
User PnL: -$40.34

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9K
Potential profit: $9K
User PnL: -$19.38

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.93K
Potential profit: $8.93K
User PnL: -$8.93

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $8.1K
Potential payout: $8.11K
Potential profit: $12.17
User PnL: $21.52

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.6K
Potential profit: $7.6K
User PnL: -$1.17K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $5.56K
Potential payout: $5.59K
Potential profit: $30.73
User PnL: $19.96

Down position

SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $630.54
Potential payout: $5.48K
Potential profit: $4.85K
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$1.17K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $2.88K
Potential payout: $5.1K
Potential profit: $2.22K
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $30.09

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68.8%
Current value: $3.1K
Potential payout: $4.5K
Potential profit: $1.41K
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: -$64.6

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $792.15
Potential payout: $4.28K
Potential profit: $3.49K
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$450.42

No position

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Ends Feb 28, 2027

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $3.34K
Potential payout: $3.55K
Potential profit: $213.07
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $114.94

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $3.02K
Potential payout: $3.53K
Potential profit: $512.08
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $136.42

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $203
Potential payout: $2.71K
Potential profit: $2.5K
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$257.13

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.2%
Current value: $1.75K
Potential payout: $2.07K
Potential profit: $327.79
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $232.12

No position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.8%
Current value: $1.89K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $105
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $49

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$42

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $75.76
Potential payout: $1.92K
Potential profit: $1.84K
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$276.52

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.83K
Potential profit: $1.83K
User PnL: -$106.5

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $1.8K
User PnL: -$53.32

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.9K

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $10.89K

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.11K

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $8.88K

No position

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.31K

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.75K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.19K

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.32K

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.11K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3K

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $2.4K

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.39K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $2.32K

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $2.31K

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.3%
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: $1.77K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.41K

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.34K

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.2K

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $957.84

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $908.27

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.2%
Multiplier: 10.93x
User PnL: $862.84

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $854.05

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 5,954.37 shares
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 6.2% 200 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 99.4% 1,476.95 shares
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Down 14% 717.29 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 99.4% 3,110.09 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 16% 3,500 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

No 98.5% 194.59 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 95% 300 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 13% 300 shares
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?

Yes 46% 200 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 13% 140 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 54% 100 shares