No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16K
- Potential profit
- $16K
- User PnL
- -$16
Polymarket Trader
0xd53eF4238Bab3Af3Dc1e81F4C5640dBf42a20B73-1775149557747
0xd53ef4238bab3af3dc1e81f4c5640dbf42a20b73
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.39K
- Realized PnL
- $5.45K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $25
- Potential payout
- $2.38K
- Potential profit
- $2.36K
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- $3.57
Yes position
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $16.16
- Potential payout
- $2.02K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$8.61
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $46.02
- Potential payout
- $1.61K
- Potential profit
- $1.57K
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- $11.68
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16.1%
- Current value
- $192.57
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- Multiplier
- 6.23x
- User PnL
- -$18.84
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $90.28
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $971.83
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$189.12
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $44.4
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $755.6
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- -$4.43
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.2%
- Current value
- $48.76
- Potential payout
- $792.86
- Potential profit
- $744.1
- Multiplier
- 16.26x
- User PnL
- $4.36
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $673.3
- Potential payout
- $678.39
- Potential profit
- $5.09
- User PnL
- $37.03
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $79.39
- Potential payout
- $635.15
- Potential profit
- $555.75
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$28.63
Yes position
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $154.77
- Potential payout
- $631.71
- Potential profit
- $476.94
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$12.82
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $477.2
- Potential payout
- $521.53
- Potential profit
- $44.33
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $83.14
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $477.25
- Potential profit
- $477.25
- User PnL
- -$187.19
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $443.99
- Potential profit
- $443.99
- User PnL
- -$48.74
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $422.26
- Potential payout
- $442.16
- Potential profit
- $19.9
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $12.23
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $403.08
- Potential payout
- $431.1
- Potential profit
- $28.02
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $28.02
No position
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $375.14
- Potential payout
- $396.98
- Potential profit
- $21.83
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $28.4
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $20.26
- Potential payout
- $393.43
- Potential profit
- $373.16
- Multiplier
- 19.42x
- User PnL
- -$11.55
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $5.84
- Potential payout
- $389.59
- Potential profit
- $383.75
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$27.08
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $3.26
- Potential payout
- $384
- Potential profit
- $380.74
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$6.34
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $366.47
- Potential profit
- $366.47
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $332.62
- Potential profit
- $332.62
- User PnL
- -$41.03
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $313.3
- Potential payout
- $319.86
- Potential profit
- $6.56
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $14.39
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $306.24
- Potential profit
- $306.24
- User PnL
- -$15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $552.64
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $471.1
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $388.58
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $362.1
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $288.69
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $264.85
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.38
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $202.58
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201.6
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $190.48
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $153.68
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.51
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.39
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.19
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.68
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $81.28
No position
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.37
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.35
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.01
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $70.14
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $68.87
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.42
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $62.88
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 14% 62.43 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 67.6% 12.9 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 28% 37.04 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes 0.4% 87.59 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?Yes 96% 10.56 shares
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Germany 40% 22.4 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?Yes 84% 10.41 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 31% 131.35 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 11.6% 347.32 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 16% 486 shares
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No 95% 82.59 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 15.6% 53.59 shares