No position
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $45
- Potential payout
- $45
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.31
Polymarket Trader
0xd5ae...61b4
0xd5ae5452b551747a6221b959dd9ac41aa4b461b4
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $136.74
- Realized PnL
- -$6.12
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $1.68
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $19.32
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$1.98
No position
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $18
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.42
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $16.47
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $1.53
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $2.77
No position
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $9.27
- Potential payout
- $17
- Potential profit
- $7.73
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $0.77
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $16
- Potential payout
- $16
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $10.85
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $3.15
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $7.54
- Potential payout
- $11
- Potential profit
- $3.47
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $6.44
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $1.56
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.84
Yes position
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $0.6
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $5.4
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.72
No position
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $4.9
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $5.84
No position
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $1.44
No position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.37
Yes position
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $0.75
No position
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $0.54
Yes position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.93x
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
China coup attempt before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
Yes position
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
No position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.54
Yes position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$1.03
No position
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$1.44
Yes position
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.3%
- Multiplier
- 8.85x
- User PnL
- -$5.93
Yes position
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$7.74
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 14% 10 shares
- Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 16% 9 shares
- Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 16% 7 shares
- Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?Yes 88.8% 5 shares
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?Yes 16% 27 shares
- China coup attempt before 2027?No 97.2% 9 shares
- U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?No 89% 5 shares
- Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?Yes 92% 9 shares
- Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 33% 5 shares
- Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?No 96% 5 shares
- Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?No 92.1% 8 shares
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No 86.9% 5 shares