Polymarket Trader

Grellenort

0xd5b02e0467106c846ca1ebec9a3e051c9dea2784

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $217.34
Realized PnL: $415.94
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.26K
Potential profit: $3.26K
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $195.39
Potential payout: $220.78
Potential profit: $25.39
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $25.39

Yes position

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $212.77
Potential profit: $212.77
User PnL: -$200

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80.21
Potential profit: $80.21
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.95
Potential profit: $78.95
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $64.47
Potential profit: $64.47
User PnL: -$49

Yes position

Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.27
Potential profit: $62.27
User PnL: -$2

No position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $21.95
Potential payout: $52.89
Potential profit: $30.94
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $1.95

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.5

Yes position

Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.78

Yes position

Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.48

Yes position

Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.69

No position

Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.31

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.62

Yes position

Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.89

Yes position

Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.21

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.14

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.04

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.96

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.53

No position

Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.22

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.11

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.63

Yes position

Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.22

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.31

Yes position

Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2

Yes position

Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

India position

ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?

Yes 77% 220.78 shares
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

No 37.8% 52.89 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 18.7% 80.21 shares
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan

India 88.1% 204.33 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

No 95.9% 177.18 shares
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Yes 89% 174.16 shares
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17?

Yes 96.2% 114.33 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

No 91% 168.69 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

No 83.6% 168.69 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?

No 97% 139.18 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

No 89% 138.2 shares
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?

Yes 3.2% 62.27 shares