Polymarket Trader

Optimus-

0xd5b97d08ec6098407bfbf66c2786ccc9967fe44e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $50.55K
Realized PnL: $50.24K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 66.7%
Current value: $21.46K
Potential payout: $32.2K
Potential profit: $10.74K
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $5.36K

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 33.4%
Current value: $10.67K
Potential payout: $32K
Potential profit: $21.33K
Multiplier: 3.00x
User PnL: -$5.33K

Yes position

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $249.16
Potential payout: $21.67K
Potential profit: $21.42K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$86.77

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $2.08K
Potential payout: $7.87K
Potential profit: $5.78K
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $634.61

No position

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.1%
Current value: $3.65K
Potential payout: $4.14K
Potential profit: $495.31
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.59K

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $217.31
Potential payout: $3.85K
Potential profit: $3.63K
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: $17.31

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $92.42
Potential payout: $3.03K
Potential profit: $2.94K
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$547.58

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $727.75
Potential payout: $2.05K
Potential profit: $1.32K
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $22.75

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $1.78K
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $123.52
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $85.52

No position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $1.89K
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $9.5
User PnL: $196.5

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $968.4
Potential payout: $1.78K
Potential profit: $808.48
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $532.08

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $856.15
Potential payout: $1.77K
Potential profit: $909.11
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$343.85

Yes position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $377.8
Potential payout: $1.76K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$338.91

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $701.33
Potential payout: $1.65K
Potential profit: $948.86
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $36.39

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $1.41K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $86.32
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $212.35

No position

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $332.62
Potential payout: $1.48K
Potential profit: $1.15K
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $124.58

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $198.44
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.17K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$305.09

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $794.23
Potential payout: $1.27K
Potential profit: $476.54
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$31.77

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $728.56
Potential payout: $1.26K
Potential profit: $527.58
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: -$83.44

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $361.34
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $717.29
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$23.82

Yes position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $535.38
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $535.38
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $26.84

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $55
Potential payout: $999.98
Potential profit: $944.98
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$254.99

No position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $204.07
Potential payout: $971.76
Potential profit: $767.69
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$112.58

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $195.54
Potential payout: $953.85
Potential profit: $758.31
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$52.46

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Hims say "Collaboration" during earnings call?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.5K

No position

Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.25K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.97K

No position

Will "New York" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.97K

No position

Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.77K

Yes position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.49K

Yes position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46K

No position

Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.96K

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92K

No position

Will Hims say "Collaboration" during earnings call?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.84K

Yes position

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.81K

No position

Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.73K

Yes position

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.3%
Multiplier: 8.89x
User PnL: $1.64K

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.57K

Yes position

Will anyone say "Advertisement" during the Q2 2025 AMC earnings call?

Ends Aug 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5K

No position

Will Teladoc Health (TDOC) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28K

No position

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.17K

No position

Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12K

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06K

No position

Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

Yes position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Jair Bolsonaro in jail by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $967.93

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 71% 188.2 shares
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Yes 19.1% 4,442.8 shares
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?

Yes 49.8% 481.48 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Yes 49% 40.45 shares
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Yes 17.5% 3,423.61 shares
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026

No 55% 872.78 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

No 69.8% 243.66 shares
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

No 51.7% 1,374.3 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Yes 68.2% 3,667.41 shares
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Yes 49.6% 907.7 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Yes 36.8% 1,359.72 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 26.5% 3,769.41 shares