Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $2.55
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $42.91
- Multiplier
- 17.86x
- User PnL
- $1.55
Polymarket Trader
Arpayon
0xd5f02cae54de042a04419584a31ccfa11b02932c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $99.78
- Realized PnL
- $141
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $34.54
- Potential profit
- $34.47
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $26.29
- Potential payout
- $27.49
- Potential profit
- $1.2
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $7.29
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.17
- Potential profit
- $22.17
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $2.1
- Potential payout
- $22.13
- Potential profit
- $20.03
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.9
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $19.23
- Potential profit
- $18.22
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $9.96
- Potential payout
- $18.98
- Potential profit
- $9.01
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $0.43
- Potential payout
- $18.21
- Potential profit
- $17.78
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
Yes position
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $2.47
- Potential payout
- $15.93
- Potential profit
- $13.46
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.7%
- Current value
- $1.52
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $12.76
- Multiplier
- 9.39x
- User PnL
- $0.52
Yes position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $14.27
- Potential profit
- $14.23
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $0.3
- Potential payout
- $9.8
- Potential profit
- $9.5
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $6.32
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $2.77
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $6.72
- Potential payout
- $7.3
- Potential profit
- $0.58
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.72
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $6.75
- Potential payout
- $7.17
- Potential profit
- $0.42
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $6.89
- Potential payout
- $6.97
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.89
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $6.17
- Potential payout
- $6.82
- Potential profit
- $0.65
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $4.47
- Potential payout
- $4.6
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.47
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.4%
- Current value
- $0.87
- Potential payout
- $3.89
- Potential profit
- $3.02
- Multiplier
- 4.46x
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $3.27
- Potential payout
- $3.65
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $3.58
- Potential payout
- $3.63
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.58
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $3.4
- Potential payout
- $3.42
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $3.21
- Potential payout
- $3.23
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $1.4
- Potential payout
- $2.04
- Potential profit
- $0.64
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.49
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.64
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.99
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.53
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.74
No position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.43
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.17
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.6
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.46
Yes position
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.36
Yes position
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.22
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.98
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.86
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.76
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.68
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.68
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.62
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.61
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.61
Yes position
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.47
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?Yes 36% 7.22 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?Yes 7% 14.29 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?Yes 5% 18.21 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes 0.3% 4.16 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 61% 1.64 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 75% 1.33 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Yes 2.9% 34.54 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Yes 2.2% 45.45 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?Yes 0.6% 31.06 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes 1.1% 10 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes 0.1% 25 shares
- Trump out as President before 2027?Yes 10% 10 shares