Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $33.02
- Potential payout
- $605.85
- Potential profit
- $572.83
- Multiplier
- 18.35x
- User PnL
- $7.49
Polymarket Trader
0xd684...94c0
0xd684582a2fb53504872372b04518d78051a394c0
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $110.62
- Realized PnL
- $19.47
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $9.99
- Potential payout
- $512.13
- Potential profit
- $502.14
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$2.92
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $4.19
- Potential payout
- $152.2
- Potential profit
- $148.01
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $5.56
- Potential payout
- $95.81
- Potential profit
- $90.25
- Multiplier
- 17.24x
- User PnL
- $2.59
Yes position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $2.26
- Potential payout
- $92.17
- Potential profit
- $89.92
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $45.05
- Potential profit
- $45.03
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $31.78
- Potential payout
- $31.78
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $25.74
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.3%
- Current value
- $3.04
- Potential payout
- $15.74
- Potential profit
- $12.7
- Multiplier
- 5.18x
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
New pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.24
- Potential payout
- $13.07
- Potential profit
- $11.83
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.72
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.92
- Potential profit
- $6.92
- User PnL
- -$1.1
Yes position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $0.35
- Potential payout
- $6.11
- Potential profit
- $5.76
- Multiplier
- 17.54x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.76
- Potential profit
- $4.76
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 40%
- Current value
- $1.84
- Potential payout
- $4.59
- Potential profit
- $2.76
- Multiplier
- 2.50x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.07
- Potential profit
- $3.07
- User PnL
- -$1.26
No position
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.7%
- Current value
- $2.71
- Potential payout
- $2.93
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $2.66
- Potential profit
- $1.16
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 93.9%
- Current value
- $2.19
- Potential payout
- $2.33
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $1.48
- Potential payout
- $2.33
- Potential profit
- $0.85
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $1.99
- Potential payout
- $2.16
- Potential profit
- $0.16
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $1.9
- Potential payout
- $2.12
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $1.92
- Potential payout
- $2.05
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $1.47
- Potential payout
- $1.56
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.07
- Potential payout
- $1.17
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Current value
- $1.11
- Potential payout
- $1.16
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
Ends Nov 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 83.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $14.95
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.98
Yes position
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- $0.94
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will KP Sharma Oli be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No 87% 0.02 shares
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No 87% 0.06 shares
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No 87% 0.01 shares
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No 87% 0.01 shares
- Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?No 93% 0.03 shares
- Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?No 94% 0.01 shares
- Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?No 94% 0.01 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 99% 0.02 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 99% 0.19 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 99% 0.01 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 99% 0.02 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 99% 0.02 shares