Polymarket Trader

TopNotch

0xd765820c88e8c0933b97a5a80c1481542ddc4b8c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $372.44
Realized PnL: $283.67
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 12
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.27K
Potential profit: $1.27K
User PnL: -$15

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.22K
Potential profit: $1.22K
User PnL: -$700

Yes position

Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $33.6
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.15K
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$1.39

Yes position

Will Solana reach $190 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $1.08K
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $185
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $815
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$155

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $7.92
Potential payout: $720.39
Potential profit: $712.47
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: $1.92

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $44.74
Potential payout: $526.32
Potential profit: $481.58
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$55.26

Yes position

Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.25
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.25
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.25
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $11.01
Potential payout: $440.27
Potential profit: $429.27
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: $1.01

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $27.09
Potential payout: $340.75
Potential profit: $313.66
Multiplier: 12.58x
User PnL: $17.09

Yes position

Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $332.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $332.83
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$30

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.7%
Current value: $57.31
Potential payout: $324.73
Potential profit: $267.41
Multiplier: 5.67x
User PnL: $7.31

Yes position

Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $315.23
Potential profit: $313.34
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$3.11

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $266.67
Potential profit: $266.67
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $195.5
Potential profit: $195.21
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.71

Yes position

Will Solana reach $180 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $190.48
Potential profit: $190.48
User PnL: -$12

No position

Maduro out by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $185.86
Potential profit: $185.86
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $181.82
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Solana reach $170 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $114.29
Potential profit: $114.29
User PnL: -$16

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $100 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $230

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $110 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.26

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.85

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.94

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.34

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.77

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $3.1

Up position

Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on January 5?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.38

No position

Will Solana reach $200 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.21

No position

Will Solana dip to $80 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.17

Down position

Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on January 5?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$58.35

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

No 15.4% 324.73 shares
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 0.3% 333.33 shares
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 0.3% 333.33 shares
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 0.8% 625 shares
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 2.3% 440.27 shares
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 2.8% 1,075.62 shares
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Yes 3.2% 31.25 shares
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 0.5% 195.5 shares
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 1% 98.33 shares
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 1% 95.39 shares
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 0.2% 500 shares
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 0.2% 500 shares