Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 14.9%
- Current value
- $75.27
- Potential payout
- $506.84
- Potential profit
- $431.57
- Multiplier
- 6.73x
- User PnL
- -$14.51
Polymarket Trader
erqwkt
0xd80a8aff93c544781131598229c602c79ea18e8f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $322.92
- Realized PnL
- $63.57
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.6%
- Current value
- $247.65
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $52.35
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $19.95
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $42
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $9.05
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- $7.32
No position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28
No position
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.1
No position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.07
No position
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 18.7% 476.19 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No 83% 300 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 15.2% 340 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No 69% 300 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16.7% 522.87 shares
- Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?No 49% 318.08 shares
- Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?No 50% 318.08 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?No 98.4% 114.1 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?No 96.4% 114.11 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 17.7% 846.84 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 15.3% 522.88 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 6% 100 shares