No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $16.14K
- Potential payout
- $16.14K
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $8.12K
Polymarket Trader
rrxqjgcaolnq
0xd821e438ff0a307b817a9a4c52afd2fef9ab33a2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $16.68K
- Realized PnL
- $4.8K
- Win rate
- 77.8%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 9
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.47K
- Potential profit
- $4.47K
- User PnL
- -$3.22K
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $534.63
- Potential payout
- $1.29K
- Potential profit
- $753.63
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $6.44
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.61K
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $562.22
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.67
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.69
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.5
Israel position
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $25.73
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$269.55
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$787.18
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 41% 23.18 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?No 84% 1,533.65 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?No 72% 6,006.58 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No 87% 4,324.74 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No 49.7% 16,142.43 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No 99.7% 8,046.38 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No 98.5% 8,046.39 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 99.8% 7,944.45 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 97.3% 7,944.45 shares
- Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes 53% 1,093.4 shares
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes 60% 965.83 shares
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes 23% 4,687.13 shares