Yes position
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $1.8
- Potential payout
- $34
- Potential profit
- $32.2
- Multiplier
- 18.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.55
Polymarket Trader
0xd845...4835
0xd845d13f8b76acd29c3923638681aaab1de04835
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $109.37
- Realized PnL
- -$16.71
- Win rate
- 40%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 5
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $25.96
- Potential payout
- $29
- Potential profit
- $3.05
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $3.04
No position
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $17.99
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $1.01
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.34
Yes position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $2
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $17.01
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$1.99
No position
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $12.98
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $2.03
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.72
Yes position
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $1.4
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $12.6
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $11.38
- Potential payout
- $13
- Potential profit
- $1.63
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.39
Yes position
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $1.62
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $10.38
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.38
No position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $10.14
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $1.86
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $1.71
- Potential payout
- $11
- Potential profit
- $9.3
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
Yes position
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $2.65
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $6.35
- Multiplier
- 3.40x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.9%
- Current value
- $1.19
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $6.81
- Multiplier
- 6.73x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
Yes position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.4%
- Current value
- $4.11
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $3.89
- Multiplier
- 1.95x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $6.8
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $1.2
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.6%
- Current value
- $2.92
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $3.08
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $0.93
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.08
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
No position
SBF released from custody in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $3.81
- Potential payout
- $4
- Potential profit
- $0.19
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.81
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
SBF released from custody in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- -$16.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?Yes 28.6% 9 shares
- Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 10% 14 shares
- US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?Yes 13% 9 shares
- US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?Yes 16% 9 shares
- Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?Yes 96% 6 shares
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?No 81% 8 shares
- Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?Yes 24% 5 shares
- Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?No 92.8% 7 shares
- Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?Yes 7.2% 18 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No 44.7% 6 shares
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes 55.4% 8 shares
- Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?No 79% 22 shares