0xd85Da6e47410324e32cc12fcc86e5e44A2c63700-1783433783492

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $297.26
Potential payout: $356
Potential profit: $58.74
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$1.78

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $12.92
Potential payout: $152
Potential profit: $139.08
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.76

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 90.3%
Current value: $72.2
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $7.8
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $0.52

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $54.28
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $10.73
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.1%
Current value: $50.64
Potential payout: $60.97
Potential profit: $10.33
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $40.26
Potential payout: $51
Potential profit: $10.74
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $48.44
Potential payout: $49
Potential profit: $0.56
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $34.23
Potential payout: $42
Potential profit: $7.77
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$1.05

No position

Will AT&T (T) Q2 total revenue be above $32.2B?

Ends Jul 22, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $32.4
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $7.6
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$0.8

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $32.18
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $6.83
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.97

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $25.92
Potential payout: $32
Potential profit: $6.08
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $15.63
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $9.38
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$1.13

No position

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $17.43
Potential payout: $21
Potential profit: $3.57
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $0.73
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.27
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$0.47

Yes position

Will PPI YoY be 6.3% in June?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $4.2
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $15.8
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$2.2

Yes position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $17.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2.3
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $6.54
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $5.46
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $0.92
Potential payout: $11.19
Potential profit: $10.27
Multiplier: 12.12x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $8.98
Potential payout: $10.69
Potential profit: $1.71
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $8.6
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $1.4
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $9.69
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.31
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $9.69
Potential payout: $9.69
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $4.65

No position

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $5.43
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $0.57
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $5.07
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $0.93
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.09

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 9?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.49

No position

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 8?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.83

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 8?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 8?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 9?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 8?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

No position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 8?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.34

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?

Implied probability: 8%
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 9?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 9?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.02

No position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 9?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 9?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 8?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 8?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.59

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 8?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.55

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 9?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or higher on July 10?

Implied probability: 97.5%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 54%
Multiplier: 1.85x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 8?