0xD8d3cf3c09C5cC5BB329E689719c4ed9fCD6ff72-1761073382643

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $214.5
Potential payout: $13K
Potential profit: $12.79K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $52.81

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $94.5
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $6.91K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$66.49

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $123.5
Potential payout: $6.5K
Potential profit: $6.38K
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: $19.5

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $31.66
Potential payout: $4.52K
Potential profit: $4.49K
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$30

No position

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $948.13
Potential payout: $3.27K
Potential profit: $2.32K
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: -$226.83

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $144
Potential payout: $3.2K
Potential profit: $3.06K
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$367.98

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $67
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.93K
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$133

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 86.7%
Current value: $923.28
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $142.25
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: -$61.51

Yes position

Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.35
Potential payout: $782.38
Potential profit: $780.04
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$2.2

Yes position

Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $87
Potential payout: $599.97
Potential profit: $512.98
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3.51
Potential payout: $585.02
Potential profit: $581.51
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$2.15

No position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 75.6%
Current value: $425.31
Potential payout: $562.29
Potential profit: $136.97
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $12.92

Yes position

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $82.27
Potential payout: $530.77
Potential profit: $448.5
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $13.05

Yes position

Will the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $14.16
Potential payout: $480
Potential profit: $465.84
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: $4.56

Yes position

Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $411.66
Potential profit: $411.66
User PnL: -$4.12

Yes position

Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $11.7
Potential payout: $299.93
Potential profit: $288.23
Multiplier: 25.64x
User PnL: -$111.68

Yes position

Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $9.65
Potential payout: $254.03
Potential profit: $244.37
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: $5.29

Yes position

Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.62
Potential payout: $231.18
Potential profit: $229.56
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $4.13
Potential payout: $211.89
Potential profit: $207.76
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: $0.61

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $82.23
Potential profit: $82.23
User PnL: -$6.58

No position

Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $62.27
Potential payout: $64
Potential profit: $1.73
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $4.93

Yes position

Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.69
Potential profit: $57.69
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 22.8%
Current value: $13.11
Potential payout: $57.65
Potential profit: $44.53
Multiplier: 4.40x
User PnL: $7.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 24.4%
Multiplier: 4.11x
User PnL: $470.98

Yes position

Jair Bolsonaro in jail by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $428.42

No position

Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-11-08?

Ends Nov 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $316.14

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $292

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $270.92

Yes position

U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $234.26

Yes position

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $224.14

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148

Yes position

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.99

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in December?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.19

Yes position

Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $96.18

Yes position

Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $95.62

Yes position

Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $94.81

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in December?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.21

Yes position

Will Ciucu win by at least 12%?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.8

No position

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $85

No position

Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12?

Ends Nov 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.02

Yes position

Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.86

Yes position

Jair Bolsonaro in jail by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.28

No position

Will Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74

Yes position

Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?