Polymarket Trader

LukeZ

0xd8d4fc5338724f9282e419ff6bb2119173f9494d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.1K
Realized PnL: $1.89K
Win rate: 75%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $507.5
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $192.5
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $73.5

Yes position

Will four or more people dissent the June Fed decision?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $625
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $20.25
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $479.74
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$14.75

Yes position

Will three people dissent the June Fed decision?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $237
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $63
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $39

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $234.97
Potential payout: $242.74
Potential profit: $7.77
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $134.97

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $27.5
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $192.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$7.7

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $77.6
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $82.4
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$62.6

Yes position

Will two people dissent the June Fed decision?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $82.07
Potential profit: $82.07
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.62
Potential profit: $59.62
User PnL: -$1.13

Yes position

Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$21.2

Yes position

Will SoundHound AI (SOUN) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $948.55

Yes position

Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $384

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $252

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $245.78

Yes position

Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $209.99

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $161.81

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.32

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.52

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81

Yes position

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.19

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.2

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.5

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33

Yes position

Will two people dissent the Fed decision?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.73

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20?

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.53

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$44.43

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$81.1

Yes position

Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$89.71

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$126

Thunder position

Thunder vs. Pacers

Ends Jun 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$500

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?

Yes 1.9% 55.92 shares
Will four or more people dissent the June Fed decision?

Yes 1.6% 625 shares
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision?

Yes 24.4% 82.07 shares
Will three people dissent the June Fed decision?

Yes 6% 333.33 shares
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Yes 16% 220 shares
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes 7% 499.99 shares
Will SoundHound AI (SOUN) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 60% 30 shares
Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 53% 40 shares
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

No 76% 28.32 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Yes 62.6% 71.16 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 41.2% 242.74 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

No 93.7% 215.69 shares